2023 Hall of Fame Ballot

2023's Hall of Fame vote is going to be interesting.  There are no slam dunk candidates among the new players on the ballot.  There are a few holdovers, but most of them have been slowly building towards election without anyone real close.  Time will tell if anyone gets elected, though I think it unlikely there will be a total shutout.

BOBBY ABREU

TEAMS: Astros, Phillies, Yankees, Dodgers, Mets
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 2x All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee?

Abreu has a sneaky good case for the Hall of Fame.  His line of .291/.395/.475 is a lot better than I thought it would be.  He was not often a standout star, which I think hurts his candidacy, but the numbers are decent.  He also hit 288 home runs and stole 400 bases, which I think is the most surprising number.  He was a 30/30 man twice in his career.  I could see his stock rise as a result of more analytical voters in the same way that Larry Walker, Edgar Martinez and Bert Blyleven were boosted.

BRONSON ARROYO

TEAMS: Pirates, Red Sox, Reds, Diamondbacks
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: All Star, Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Reds
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Arroyo had a solid career, mostly with the Reds.  He was never really a standout pitcher, but he did lead the league in games started twice, innings pitched once and shutouts once.  He won 15 or more games three times during his career.  He received some MVP votes one year and Cy Young votes another.  He had a career record of 148-137 with an ERA of 4.28 and 1,571 strikeouts.  Arroyo was a reliable innings eater, but he was never really a star.  It will be surprising if he receives any votes.

CARLOS BELTRAN

TEAMS: Royals, Astros, Mets, Giants, Cardinals, Yankees, Rangers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Rookie of the Year (1999), 9x All Star, 3x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mets
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe after a year or so.

Beltran is easily the best player of the new players on the ballot.  Unfortunately, his candidacy is marred by his involvement with the 2017 Astros cheating scandal.  I could see voters punish him for a year or two as they did with Roberto Alomar.  It's also possible he never recovers from it.  For his career, Beltran hit .279/.350/.486 with 435 home runs, 312 stolen bases and 1,587 RBIs.  He only led the league in one category: games played.  He played on one World Championship team (the aforementioned Astros) and played in the World Series with the Cardinals in 2013.

MARK BUEHRLE

TEAMS: White Sox, Marlins, Blue Jays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 4x Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: White Sox
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Unlikely

The southpaw Buehrle was a member of the 2005 World Champion White Sox and pitched a no-hitter in 2007.  Buehrle was consistent and durable, pitching more than 200 innings 14 years in a row and winning more ten or more games 15 years in a row.  He led the league in games started twice and innings twice.  Buerhle has been on the ballot for a few years now, but he has always stayed just above the five percent needed to stay on the ballot without gaining much traction.  I do not think that is likely to change.

MATT CAIN

TEAMS: Giants
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Giants
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Cain pitched a perfect game and was a starting pitcher on two World Championship teams.  Beyond that, there is not much to say about him.  He did make it to three All Star teams and he did finish in the top ten of the Cy Young vote twice, but injuries really derailed his career.  Lifetime, he was 104-118 with a 3.68 ERA and 1,694 strikeouts.  There are not a lot of starters in the Hall of Fame with losing records.  There are five in fact.  Four of them were closers (Rollie Fingers, Lee Smith, Trevor Hoffman, Bruce Sutter).  The other one was Hank O'Day, who seems not to have been elected due to his playing  career.  I cannot see Cain getting in.  I would be shocked if he got a single vote.

R.A. DICKEY

TEAMS: Rangers, Mariners, Twins, Mets, Blue Jays, Braves
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Cy Young (2012), All Star, Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mets
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Dickey had a weird career.  For the first several seasons of his career, he could not seem to stick in the Majors.  He made his debut in 2001, but spent the entire 2002 and 2007 seasons in the minors.  It was not until 2008 that he seemed to stick, and even then, he pitched mostly out of the bullpen.  He started throwing a knuckleball and then shocked the world by winning the 2012 Cy Young Award for the Mets, leading the league in strikeouts and winning 20 games.  After that though he reverted to being a slightly above-average starter again.  He has a career 120-118 record with a 4.04 ERA and 1,477 strikeouts. 

JACOBY ELLSBURY

TEAMS: Red Sox, Yankees
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Red Sox
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Ellsbury's primary weapon was his game-changing speed.  His speed was legendary.  It allowed him to steal home twice.  He holds the Red Sox single season stolen base record with 70 in 2009 and was the team's first 30/30 man in 2011.  He led the league in stolen bases three times.  In 2011, he finished second in the MVP race, leading the league in total bases and hitting .321.  Unfortunately, he is another player whose career was derailed by injuries.  He finished his career with a line of .284/.342/.417 with 104 home runs 512 RBIs, 749 runs scored, 1,376 hits and 343 stolen bases.  That's not going to get him in Cooperstown, but he will likely be a Red Sox Hall of Famer.

ANDRE ETHIER

TEAMS: Dodgers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 2x All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Dodgers
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Ethier spent 12 years in the Majors, all with the Dodgers after being acquired from the Athletics.  He hit more than 20 home runs four times and drove in more than 100 runs once.  In 2009 he finished sixth in the MVP vote.  For his career, he hit .285/.359/.463 with 162 home runs and 687 RBIs.  There is not much to say about Ethier.  He was good for several seasons, but not really a standout for more than a couple of seasons.  His numbers do not come close to Hall-worthy.

J.J. HARDY

TEAMS: Brewers, Twins, Orioles
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 2x All Star, 3x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Orioles
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Hardy had some impressive power for a shortstop.  He hit more than 20 home runs five times in his career and finished with 188.  He was also a decent defensive shortstop as his three Gold Gloves attest.  But, he was wildly inconsistent and not a great hitter.  Hardy hit .256/.305/.408 in his career and had a lifetime OPS+ of 91.  His defense was not good enough to make up for his offensive deficiencies.

TODD HELTON

TEAMS: Rockies
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 3x Gold Glove, 4x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Rockies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Yes.

I feel comfortable saying Helton will eventually be elected, and it's about time.  His voting numbers have increased each year.  It probably will not happen this year, but maybe very soon.  He made it to 52% last year.  Helton was one of the most consistent hitters in the game.  In his early years, he was a good power hitter.  Though his power declined over time, he remained a terrific hitter.  He won a batting championship in 2000, and that season he led the league in hits, doubles, RBIs, OBP and slugging percentage while hitting 42 home runs.  For his career, Helton hit .316/.414/.539 with 369 home runs and 1,406 RBIs.  

TORII HUNTER

TEAMS: Twins, Angels, Tigers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 9x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Twins
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee?

Hunter barely stayed on the ballot last year and it is certainly possible that he may never be elected.  I think in this current state with the Eras Committees electing so many players that Hunter could certainly get in some day.  Hunter was widely renowned for his impressive defense.  He probably could have won even more than his nine Gold Gloves.  He was a pretty decent hitter too.  For his career, he hit .277/.331/.461 with 353 home runs and 1,391 RBIs.  It would not shock me to see him get in some day, but it will not be this year.  Or next.  Or even soon.

ANDRUW JONES

TEAMS: Braves, Dodgers, Rangers, White Sox, Yankees
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 10x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Braves
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Yes

Jones is an even more impressive version of Torii Hunter and is therefore closer to election.  He has been on the ballot a few more years and cracked the 40% mark last season.  He could get in in the next couple of years, but probably not this year.  Jones is widely regarded as one of the greatest defensive center fielders of all time.  He also hit quite a few more home runs in his career than Hunter.  The stumbling block with Jones is that his career fell off a cliff after hitting 30 years of age.  But, his career numbers were .254/.337/.486 with 434 home runs and 1,289 RBIs.  He was second in the MVP race in 2005 when he led the league with 51 home runs and 128 RBIs.  

JEFF KENT

TEAMS: Blue Jays, Mets, Indians, Giants, Astros, Dodgers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: MVP (2000), 5x All Star, 4x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Giants
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee

Kent is in his final year on the BBWAA ballot, but he only made it on to 32% of ballots last year.  It looks like his time has run out in this phase.  Kent probably should be getting more attention, even if it is just on the basis of his career record for home runs by a second-baseman (377).  In his 17-year career, Kent hit .290/.356/.500 and drove in 1,518 runs.  Those are certainly impressive enough numbers.  For several years there were just too many other candidates.  Now that that logjam has eased up, he has too much ground to make up in just one year.  I just do not see it happening.    

JOHN LACKEY

TEAMS: Angels, Red Sox, Cardinals, Cubs
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Angels
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Lackey was a dependable starting pitcher for several seasons, but rarely stood out.  He did finish fourth in the Rookie of the Year vote in 2002 and third in the Cy Young vote in 2007 when he went 19-9 and led the league with a 3.01 ERA.  Lackey's standout quality was his ability to pitch in big games.  He was a part of three World Championship teams, including winning the clinching game of the 2013 World Series.  Unfortunately, this is not enough to qualify him for the Hall of Fame.  His career numbers of 188-147 with a 3.92 ERA and 2,294 strikeouts are not impressive enough for the Hall.  He will be off the ballot after one year.

MIKE NAPOLI

TEAMS: Angels, Rangers, Red Sox, Indians
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Angels?  A legitimate argument could be made for any of his teams.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Napoli never led the league in any category and was an All Star just once.  He had a lot of power, especially for a catcher as he was for most of the beginning of his career.  He eventually moved to first base and designated hitter full-time.  Napoli was known for his leadership abilities and for his gritty play, most on display with being a member of the 2013 World Champion Red Sox and 2016 AL champion Cleveland Indians.  Unfortunately, the numbers just are not there.  He hit 267 career home runs over 12 seasons and hit 30 or more twice.  His career line was .246/.346/.475 with 744 career RBIs.  That just is not getting him in.  Nor will he get much support.

JHONNY PERALTA

TEAMS: Indians, Tigers, Cardinals
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Indians
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Peralta hit 20 or more home runs and was an All Star three times as primarily a shortstop.  He even garnered some MVP support one year.  Unfortunately, his career was far too inconsistent to make any real headway towards Hall of Fame support.  His line was .267/.329/.423 with 202 career home runs and 873 RBIs.  He also struck out a lot, striking out more than 100 times nine times.  He was a solid player for 15 years, but nowhere near enough for the Hall of Fame.  I would be surprised if he received any votes.

ANDY PETTITTE

TEAMS: Yankees, Astros
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Yankees
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably not.

Pettitte was a great post-season performer and one of the best starting pitchers for the dynasty Yankees of the late 1990's/early 2000's.  This has led to a perception of him being a bit better than he was.  He was certainly good, and he finished in the top five of the Cy Young vote four times.  But he benefitted from pitching for great Yankees teams most of his career and being durable.  He only led the league in any major category once: wins in 1996, which is a result of playing for the Yankees.  He had a record of 256-153 with a 3.85 ERA and 2,448 strikeouts.  I do suspect there will be a following to try to get him in, but he does have inclusion in the Mitchell Report to contend with.  

MANNY RAMIREZ

TEAMS: Indians, Red Sox, Dodgers, White Sox, Rays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 12x All Star, 9x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Red Sox
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Not soon.

Had Manny not been suspended twice for PED test failures, he would already be in the Hall of Fame.  There is zero question about his numbers or his accolades.  He finished second in the Rookie of the Year vote in 1994 and in the top five for the MVP four times.  He has won a batting title and led the league in home runs and RBIs.  He has a career stat line of .312/.411/.585.  Those are CAREER numbers.  He hit 555 home runs and drove in 1,831 runs.  And he could have done more had he not been suspended twice.  This is his seventh year on the ballot and he has yet to crack 30%.  I do not see him getting in any time soon, even if his numbers would merit inclusion.

ALEX RODRIGUEZ

TEAMS: Mariners, Rangers, Yankees
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x MVP (2003, 2005, 2007), 14x All Star, 2x Gold Glove, 10x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Yankees
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Not soon.

Rodriguez has basically the same problem as Manny Ramirez.  He was suspended for an entire season due to PED usage.  He admitted to a large amount of use during his time with the Rangers in particular.  Again, like Ramirez, his numbers would easily merit induction.  He was one of the best players in the game during his career and would be on a list of the greatest players of all time just looking at his numbers.  He hit .295/.380/.550 with 696 home runs (fifth all time) and 2,086 RBIs.  In his early years, he even stole quite a few bases, being one of just four players to make the 40/40 mark.  The baseball writers did not elect Roger Clemens or Barry Bonds, there is no way they will elect Alex Rodriguez or Manny Ramirez.

FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ

TEAMS: Angels, Mets, Brewers, Orioles, Tigers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 4x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Angels
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe?

Hall of Fame elections have been pretty inconsistent when it comes to closers.  Of course Mariano Rivera is the only player to be elected unanimously.  It is kind of a crapshoot with other closers.  Rodriguez's major claim to fame is that he holds the all-time single season saves record with 62 saves in 2008.  He led the league in saves three times and has 437 in his career.  Rodriguez was an elite closer who also managed to finish in the top five of the Cy Young vote three times.  He had a career ERA of 2.86 and struck out 1,142 batters in 976 innings pitched.  I could see Rodriguez sticking on the ballot and maybe garnering support as time goes on.  Billy Wagner has.  But Joe Nathan was similarly dominant and he dropped off the ballot after one year.  Closers are a crapshoot.

SCOTT ROLEN

TEAMS: Phillies, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Reds
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Rookie of the Year (1997), 7x All Star, 8x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies maybe?
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Yes.  Likely this year.

Rolen is the most likely player on the ballot to be elected this time around.  He has been steadily building support over his five years on the ballot and made it to 63% last year.  With no obvious new candidates and a big logjam from the last few years broken down, it is likely he gets in this year.  Rolen was a terrific defensive third-baseman who could hit a little too.  He had a stat line of .281/.364/.490 with 316 career home runs and 1,287 RBIs.  He finished fourth in the MVP vote in 2004 with the Cardinals.  Third base is underrepresented in the Hall of Fame and Rolen was arguably the best National League third-basemen during his generation.  That is usually enough to get someone in.  

JIMMY ROLLINS

TEAMS: Phillies, Dodgers, White Sox
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: MVP (2007), 3x All Star, 4x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Possibly?

Rollins stayed on the ballot last year, but finished with just under 10% of the vote.  Rolen did just a little bit better than that in his first year on the ballot, so anything is possible.  Rollins had a pretty good career that included an MVP award in 2007 and playing on a World Championship team in 2008.  He led the league in runs once, triples four times and stolen bases once, so there is some black ink on his Baseball Reference page.  For his career, he hit .264/.324/.418 with 231 home runs, 936 RBIs and 1,421 runs scored.  He also had 2,455 hits, so he was not far from 3,000.  He stole 470 bases.  And he was a shortstop.  I think he has a sneaky good candidacy that could easily pick up steam over time.  

GARY SHEFFIELD

TEAMS: Brewers, Padres, Marlins, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Tigers, Mets
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 9x All Star, 5x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Marlins?
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Possibly at some point by an Eras Committee.

Sheffield has similar numbers to Manny Ramirez, though slightly less.  He does not have the PED suspensions that Ramirez had, but his name came up in the BALCO investigation.  That, coupled with his surly temperament and ability to wear out his welcome with every team he played for has made it difficult for him in the voting.  He has been on the ballot for eight years now, and has been stuck at 40% for the last two.  Time is running out.  His numbers are certainly there: .292/.393/.514 with 509 home runs and 1,676 RBIs.  I just don't see him getting voted in by the BBWAA.

HUSTON STREET

TEAMS: Athletics, Rockies, Padres, Angels
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Rookie of the Year (2005), 2x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Athletics
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Street is one of three closers on the ballot this year and he has the least chance being elected of them.  He is also the most likely to be one and done on the ballot.  That is not to say that he was not a great closer.  He won the Rookie of the Year in 2005 and saved 324 career games in 13 seasons.  He had a career ERA of 2.95 and was below 2.00 in four seasons.  He had a record of 42-34 with 665 career strikeouts.  Those numbers are just not enough to keep him on the ballot, much less get him in the Hall of Fame.

OMAR VIZQUEL

TEAMS: Mariners, Indians, Giants, Rangers, White Sox, Blue Jays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star, 11x Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Indians
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Looking less and less likely.

Three years ago it looked like Vizquel would build enough support to get elected.  In his third year on the ballot, he cracked the 50% mark.  But then, some less than savory information came out that hurt his candidacy.  His support since then has shrunk to below 25%, lower than he even started out.  I am okay with this.  I have covered Vizquel several times and have called him a highly overrated candidate.  He was a terrible hitter for most of his career, finishing with an OPS of .688 and an OPS+ of 82.  His 2,877 hits were due to playing 24 seasons.  His defense is what kept him in the league as he won 11 Gold Gloves, but advanced defensive metrics suggest that he was overrated.   

BILLY WAGNER

TEAMS: Astros, Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, Braves
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 7x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Astros
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably.

I have come around on Wagner over the years.  Right now, I think he will probably get in in the next couple years.  He is running low on time, this is his eighth year on the ballot, but he is heading in the right direction.  He appeared on 51% of the ballots last year and appears to have gained a few already this year.  Wagner was a dominant closer, striking out 1,196 batters over just 903 innings pitched and saving 422 games.  He had a career ERA of 2.31.  I think he will get in while still on the BBWAA ballot, with an outside chance of making it this year.  

JERED WEAVER

TEAMS: Angels, Padres
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Angels
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

In looking at Weaver's career, he is better than I remembered him being.  Maybe I had him confused with his brother Jeff.  Of course, I still doubt he receives more than a vote or two, and most likely none.  He did finish in the top five of Cy Young voting three years in a row, with a high of second to Justin Verlander in 2011.  He led the league in wins twice and strikeouts once.  His career record was 150-98 with a 3.63 ERA and 1,621 strikeouts.  It looks like he started to struggle in his 30's then dealt with injuries and that was pretty much it for his career.

JAYSON WERTH

TEAMS: Blue Jays, Dodgers, Phillies, Nationals
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Nationals
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Werth was a slugging outfielder who primarily played for the Phillies and Nationals.  He was a big bat in the lineup for the 2008 World Champion Phillies and hit more than 20 home runs six times during his career, with a career high of 36.  But, he was an All Star just once and only led the league in one category one year throughout his career (doubles), and he never drove in 100 runs.  His career stat line was .267/.360/.455 with 229 home runs and 799 RBIs.  That just is not getting it done.

PREDICTIONS

1.  Scott Rolen is the only player to get elected.

2.  Jeff Kent makes a big gain, but it is too little, too late and he drops off the ballot.

3.  Todd Helton, Andruw Jones and Billy Wagner all make big gains, positioning them to be elected in the next couple of years.  

4.  Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez make modest gains, but continue to stagnate.

5.  Carlos Beltran and Francisco Rodriguez are the only newcomers to remain on the ballot.  None of the other newcomers receive even one vote and drop off.