2026 Hall of Fame Results

First of all, congratulations to Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones on their election to the Hall of Fame.  It is well-deserved.  They will join Jeff Kent as the three players elected to the Hall this year.  I expect Kent to have a Giants cap on his plaque, Beltran with the Mets and Jones with the Braves.  

Now, I did want to raise a little bit of a gripe.  Beltran was the face of the Astros cheating scandal of 2017.  For him to get in and the PED guys to still be on the outside looking in, is kind of a ridiculous.  I don't think those guys did anything worse than the cheating scandal in 2017.  The Astros won the Championship that season, largely on their ability to cheat.  So, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Sammy Sosa, Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez should all be in.

Okay, now that that is out of the way, let's look at my predictions from earlier:

1. Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones finally get elected.

Yes.  As said earlier, they both got in.

2. Dustin Pedroia, Chase Utley, Andy Pettitte and Felix Hernandez all get large gains as a result of being stronger cases on a very weak ballot.

Yes again.  Pedroia went from 11.9% to 20% (gained 38 votes).  Utley went from 39.8% to 59.1% (157 to 251).  Pettitte went from 27.9% to 48.5% (110 to 206 votes).  And King Felix went from 20.6% to 46.1% (81 to 196).  Those are some very large gains.  Utley has positioned himself to have an outside chance at election next year with Hernandez maybe a year or two later.  Pettitte is running very low on time, only having two more years on the ballot, but as I said in my earlier post, I think he gets in via an Eras Committee.  I will discuss Pedroia more in a later post, but he could easily build support over the next eight years.

3. Of the first-timers, only Cole Hamels makes it to a second year on the ballot.

Again, correct.  Hamels received 23.8% of the vote.  All of the other first-timers failed to receive the necessary five percent.  Rick Porcello shocked me by getting two votes.  Gio Gonzalez, Howie Kendrick and Daniel Murphy all got shut out.

4. Manny Ramirez makes a modest gain, but drops off the ballot due to being on for ten years.

Ramirez gained 30 votes, going from 34.3% to 38.8% and drops off the ballot.

5. Alex Rodriguez makes a modest gain.

A-Rod gained 24 votes and finished at 40%.

6. Torii Hunter and Omar Vizquel both manage to get headed in a positive direction. 

Hunter gained 17 votes and Vizquel gained eight.  Vizquel will be in his final year on the ballot next year.

Next year, the top newcomers will be Buster Posey and Jon Lester.  Neither player is a slam dunk for election in the first year.  Posey is often cited as a potential first year inductee, but he doesn't really have that much better of a case than Pedroia, which I will discuss in my future post.  

Eras Committee Results (Congratulations Jeff Kent)

First of all, congratulations to Jeff Kent.  I have advocated for Kent in the past and believed he had a legitimate shot.  I am a little surprised he got in right away, but he seemed like someone the writers were just missing on.  I am hoping his election clears the way for Dustin Pedroia.  JAWS rates Pedroia higher than Kent.  

So, what else is there to talk about?  I suppose I will look at each of the other candidates.

CARLOS DELGADO

I think the biggest surprise of the night was that Delgado finished second, three votes away from election.  That is crazy to me.  Delgado was one and done on the writers' ballot, though that was due to the massively packed ballot.  But still, the fact that he performed so well was a big shock.  I think he will be on the next ballot.

DON MATTINGLY

I think if there was a favorite going into the night, it was probably Mattingly.  Tons of writers put out Mattingly puff pieces.  And then, he received six votes.  He is stagnant.  He received two fewer votes than last time.  He has been given 19 opportunities at election and the closest he has ever gotten is 50% of the vote.  He is not getting elected.  I was listening to MLB radio on the way home from work and multiple hosts seemed pissed that he was not elected.  It's time to try someone else.  The voters have spoken time and time again and Mattingly is not getting in.  One of the hosts talked about giving Mattingly extra credit for his managerial career, but he has generally been a less-than-good manager.  He has a career record of 889-950.  I don't think you get extra credit when you have a losing record as a manager.  Now, some people might call me a hypocrite because I continue to pound the drum for Luis Tiant and he has gotten a lot of opportunities as well (21 so far), but the difference is that Tiant compares favorably to a lot of pitchers already in, Mattingly is the 40th best first-baseman according to JAWS.  Most of the Hall of Famers behind him are either Negro League players or generally considered bad picks for the Hall.  

DALE MURPHY

A lot of what I said about Mattingly goes to Murphy as well.  He has also been given 19 opportunities and failed to gain election.  He was also a favorite for election tonight due to his consecutive MVP awards and his nice-guy status.  He also received just six votes (50%).  I am sure both Mattingly and Murphy will be on the ballot next time around, but I think it's time to take a break from these two.  

BARRY BONDS

Bonds received fewer than five votes.  There is a big consequence to that.  He will not be on the next ballot.  And if he fails to receive five votes the next time he makes it on the ballot, he will no longer be considered for the Hall of Fame.  Personally, I think that's a travesty.  Bonds is one of the greatest players of all time and won seven MVP awards, as well as being the all-time home run leader.  I don't care about the steroid issue, particularly in light of the fact that at the time, PEDs were not banned by the sport.

ROGER CLEMENS

And everything I said about Bonds goes to Clemens.  He too received fewer than five votes and will not be eligible for this ballot the next time around and is in danger of dropping off permanently.  Clemens is one of the greatest pitchers of all time and won the Cy Young Award seven times, as well as being named MVP.  Again, it is ridiculous to keep him out.  He never tested positive.  I do not understand keeping him out.

GARY SHEFFIELD

Like Bonds and Clemens, Sheffield also failed to get more than five votes and the same consequences apply to him.  I feel less angry about him.  I believe he deserves election, but I am not nearly as strong in my convictions about him as I am about Bonds and Clemens.  

FERNANDO VALENZUELA

Valenzuela also failed to receive five votes.  This was the least surprising result for me though.  Playing career-wise, he is the least deserving of any of the candidates on this ballot.  Not to say he wasn't a great player for awhile.  He definitely had a high peak, but it didn't last long enough.  The best argument for Valenzuela was for his cultural impact and his work as an announcer.  I was a big fan of Valenzuela, but I just do not think he is really close to being a Hall of Famer.  I would be pretty surprised if he gets another shot.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

The next time this era comes up for a vote will be in December, 2028.  Only Delgado, Mattingly and Murphy are eligible for consideration that year from this ballot.  I would like to see Dwight Evans, Lou Whitaker and Curt Schilling on that ballot.  I think all three deserve to be in. 

Next year's ballot will be the far-less-exciting Contemporary Managers/Executives/Umpires ballot.  I have zero idea what to expect from that one.  I really think they should just do this one every other year in conjunction with other ballots.  

The Classic Baseball Era Committee will vote in 2027.  I want to see Reggie Smith and Luis Tiant on that ballot.

2026 Hall of Fame Ballot Time

It's Hall of Fame ballot season!  I make stupid predictions every year.  Sometimes I am even right.  A lot of these players have been discussed for several years.  So as not to give conflicting predictions in most cases, I am probably going to just cut and paste and make some obvious voting updates from last year's post.

 BOBBY ABREU

TEAMS: Astros, Phillies, Yankees, Angels, Dodgers, Mets
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 2x All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee?

Abreu continues to surprise me with his support. I am not necessarily opposed to his election, but he is a player that I definitely never considered a Hall of Famer when he was playing. But, it is not as if his election is imminent. He is now in his seventh year on the ballot and received just 19.5% of the vote last year.  He has a long way to go if he is to ever get in.

CARLOS BELTRAN

TEAMS: Royals, Astros, Mets, Giants, Cardinals, Yankees, Rangers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Rookie of the Year (1999), 9x All Star, 3x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mets
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Yes, this year.

Beltran is the litmus test for how the Astros players of 2017 will be treated. He is now in his fourth year on the ballot and, after receiving 70.3% last year, I think his election is imminent this time around. 

RYAN BRAUN

TEAMS: Brewers

ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Rookie of the Year (2007), MVP (2011), 6x All Star, 5x Silver Slugger

IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Brewers

WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Most likely not.

Boy, those accomplishments look pretty good.  And, he hit .296/.358/.532 with 352 career home runs and 1,154 career RBIs.  Unfortunately, there's that other thing.  Braun was suspended for the majority of the 2013 season for testing positive for PEDs.  He was not all that forthcoming about it either.  The voters have generally taken a very hard-line stance against players who get suspended for PEDs, not electing Rafael Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez or Alex Rodriguez, all players who have even more favorable career numbers to Braun.  I do not expect any different outcome here.  He will be lucky to stay on the ballot.  

MARK BUEHRLE

TEAMS: White Sox, Marlins, Blue Jays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 4x Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: White Sox
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Unlikely

Buerhle is now in his sixth year on the ballot and seems to be gaining a few votes, but he only received 11.4% last year. He was a very good, steady pitcher for a long time, but that does not really scream Hall of Fame to me, and voters mostly seem to see it the same way. I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility for him to get in, but it seems unlikely.

SHIN-SOO CHOO

TEAMS: Mariners, Indians, Reds, Rangers

ACCOMPLISHMENTS: All Star

IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Indians

WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Choo was better than I remembered.  For his career he hit .275/.377/.447 with 218 home runs, 1,671 hits, 782 RBIs and 157 stolen bases.  He hit over .300 three times and over 20 home runs seven times.  He received MVP consideration twice.  But, that is just not going to get it done.  Hall of Pretty Good, sure.  Hall of Fame, no.

EDWIN ENCARNACION

TEAMS: Reds, Blue Jays, Indians, Mariners, Yankees, White Sox

ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star

IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Blue Jays

WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Somehow, Encarnacion hit 424 career home runs.  That seems really crazy.  I get that he had some huge seasons in Toronto in particular.  He hit more than 40 home runs twice and drove in more than 100 runs six times.  He had a career slash line of .260/.350/.496 and drove in 1,261 runs.  But for a player whose best position was designated hitter, he needed more than 424 career home runs and a much better slash line.  His numbers do not come close to players like Edgar Martinez or David Ortiz, and there is not much of a lower line for a player who was primarily a DH.

GIO GONZALEZ

TEAMS: Athletics, Nationals, Brewers, White Sox

ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 2x All Star

IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Nationals

WILL HE BE ELECTED?: He is the most likely to not receive a vote.

I have not gotten all the way through this but I am guessing that Gonzalez is probably the least-qualified player on this ballot.  The "it's an honor to be nominated" candidate.  That is not to suggest that Gonzalez was a bad player, far from it.  But his 131-101 record and 3.70 career ERA are not exactly eye-popping.  He had some good years and in 2012 he was third in the Cy Young vote after going 21-8 with a 2.89 ERA and 207 strikeouts.  He just was not good enough for anywhere near long enough to make a serious run at the Hall of Fame.  

ALEX GORDON

TEAMS: Royals

ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star, 8x Gold Glove

IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Royals

WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Interesting side note: Alex Gordon went to my high school.  And my college.  He is from my hometown of Lincoln, Nebraska.  He is three years younger than I am and was a freshman when I was a senior.  I dated a girl two years younger than me and she knew him from a few of her classes growing up.  But enough of all of that, is Alex Gordon going to get into the Hall of Fame?  Sadly, no.  He was a great defensive player, but his bat did not live up to the lofty expectations of being a second overall pick in the draft.  His slash line was .257/.338/.410, an OPS+ of 102, which means he was just two percent better than the average player.  He had a few very good seasons, but 190 career home runs, 1,643 hits and 749 RBIs are not Hall of Fame numbers.

COLE HAMELS

TEAMS: Phillies, Rangers, Cubs, Braves

ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 4x All Star

IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies

WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably has the best chance of any of the first-year players on the ballot.

Hamels has the best chance of election of any of the first-year players on this ballot.  We are at a point where the standards for starting pitchers to make the Hall of Fame are going to be lessening.  Hamels had a record of 163-122 with a career ERA of 3.43 and 2,560 strikeouts in 2,698 innings.  The strikeout and ERA numbers are certainly impressive, but the record would not have gotten him a second look 10-15 years ago.  I do not think he is going to get in this year, but I think Hamels will build a case over time.  His World Series MVP from 2008 certainly helps.

FELIX HERNANDEZ

TEAMS: Mariners
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Cy Young (2010), 6x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mariners
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Eventually maybe.

King Felix did not have a long career, but he was absolutely dominant for about a seven-year period. In this day and age, that might be enough for a starting pitcher to get in. He won't get in this year, but he could easily build up support over the next several years. This is his second year on the ballot and he finished with 20.6% of the vote, so he has been doing better than a lot of the pitchers currently on the ballot. Hernandez only won 169 games in his career, but he mostly pitched for bad Mariners teams and he struck out 2,524 career batters, an average of over 200 per season during his 15-year career. Unfortunately, he flamed out early and was done by the age of 33, but he was a great pitcher when he was healthy.

TORII HUNTER

TEAMS: Twins, Angels, Tigers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 9x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Twins
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Hunter barely stayed on the ballot last year, receiving 5.1% of the vote.  It takes 5% to stay on the ballot, meaning if he loses just a few votes this year, he will drop off the ballot. I am not sure of the reason behind the drop in support, but it does appear to be a reality. He was not a real strong candidate to begin with, with a lot of other center fielders needing election before a good case can be made for him.

ANDRUW JONES

TEAMS: Braves, Dodgers, Rangers, White Sox, Yankees
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 10x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Braves
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Reasonable chance at election this year.

Time is running out for Jones. He is in his ninth year on the ballot, but he did receive 66.2% of the vote last year. With a very weak class this year, he has a very good shot at election.  If not, he will have one more chance.  He is regarded as one of the greatest defensive center fielders of all time and also has 434 career homers.  Unfortunately, he was basically done as a good player at the age of 30 and just sort of hung around after that.

MATT KEMP

TEAMS: Dodgers, Padres, Braves, Reds, Rockies

ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star, 2x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger

IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Dodgers

WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

There are a lot of guys on this ballot that were superstars for a few years and then just sort of faded away.  Kemp was one of the best players in the National League for a few years and probably should have won the MVP in 2011 when he hit .324/.399/.586 with 39 home runs, 126 RBIs, 115 runs scored and 40 stolen bases.  He led the league in homers, RBIs and runs.  But he was a good, but not great player, for much of the rest of his career and his career numbers were a line of .284/.337/.484 with 287 homers, 1,031 RBIs and 184 stolen bases.  Solid numbers, but not superstar numbers.

HOWIE KENDRICK

TEAMS: Angels, Dodgers, Phillies, Nationals

ACCOMPLISHMENTS: All Star

IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Angels

WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Kendrick's biggest claim to fame is going off in the 2019 postseason to the point that he was the NLCS MVP.  Before that, he was a solid, if unspectacular second-baseman.  He was certainly a good hitter, as his .294/.337/.430 career slash line will attest, but he did not walk much and had very little power (only four years with ten or more homers and a career high of 18).  He did not have a ton of speed either, meaning his only real tool was the ability to hit for contact.  Nice player, not a Hall of Famer. 

NICK MARKAKIS

TEAMS: Orioles, Braves

ACCOMPLISHMENTS: All Star, 3x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger

IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Orioles

WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

For a few years there was some talk about the possibility of Markakis sneaking his way to 3,000 hits and forcing the door to the Hall of Fame open for him.  He was named an All Star for the first time in 2018 at the age of 34 and had 185 hits that season, putting him at 2,237 for his career.  Certainly at the time it looked like he could stick around for another four seasons and make it to 3,000, but his decline happened fast and he was out of baseball after the 2020 season with just 2,388 hits.  Without making the magic number, he just is not getting in.

DANIEL MURPHY

TEAMS: Mets, Nationals, Cubs, Rockies

ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star, 2x Silver Slugger

IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Maybe Nationals?

WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Yet another player on the ballot with some big years, but not nearly enough of them to build a Hall of Fame case.  Murphy was the runner-up in the MVP race in 2016 when he hit .347/.390/.595 with a league-leading 47 doubles, 25 home runs and 104 RBIs, as a second-baseman.  He had more time with the Mets, but his best seasons were in Washington.  His line of .296/.341/.455 is impressive, but his hit total of 1,572 and 138 home runs does not get him there.  Definitely some great years though.

DUSTIN /PEDROIA

TEAMS: Red Sox

ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Rookie of the Year (2007), MVP (2008), 4x All Star, 4x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger

IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Red Sox

WILL HE BE ELECTED?:  Possibly

Pedroia had a better showing than I was expecting last year.  In his first year on the ballot, he was named on 11.9% of the ballots.  That's better than some players who were eventually elected.  There is a trend in the Eras Committees for high peak players to get in, and Pedroia would qualify.  It's hard to ignore a player who won both the MVP and Rookie of the Year.  Pedroia's numbers are hurt by his injuries in the last few years of his career, but still eclipse Kendrick and Murphy, who both debut this year.  He could be a player who builds a case over time.  I think a decent-sized jump this year with a weak class could propel him.  

HUNTER PENCE

TEAMS: Astros, Phillies, Giants, Rangers

ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 4x All Star

IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Giants slightly over Astros

WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Pence is yet another solid, occasionally great player on this ballot.  But, he never led the league in any significant offensive category, was only an All Star four times and never won any other awards.  His slash line was a good-not-great .279/.334/.461 with 244 career home runs and 942 career RBIs.  He had 1,791 hits in his career.  So, once again, very good player, but not a Hall of Famer.

ANDY PETTITTE

TEAMS: Yankees, Astros
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Yankees
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee

Pettitte is now in his eighth year on the ballot and received 27.9% of the vote last year. He more than doubled in percentage of votes but he still has a long way to go and a very short time to make it up. It is certainly possible that the election of CC Sabathia could help boost Pettitte's chances in the near future, but he has a lot of ground to make up. I think his best chance would be to build up his vote total and get in on an Eras Committee ballot.

RICK PORCELLO

TEAMS: Tigers, Red Sox, Mets

ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Cy Young (2016)

IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Red Sox

WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

I take back what I said about Gio Gonzalez being the least-qualified player on the ballot.  Even though Porcello won the Cy Young Award in 2016, he has the lowest bWAR (18.8) by a decent margin and was never an All Star.  Other than his Cy Young season, he never had another year where he was in the running and he was mostly an average pitcher every other year.  His career stats include a record of 150-125 with an ERA of 4.40 (ERA+ 99) and he had 1,561 strikeouts.  I really liked Porcello during his time in Boston, but had he not won the Cy Young Award, I don't even think he would be on this ballot.

MANNY RAMIREZ

TEAMS: Indians, Red Sox, Dodgers, White Sox, Rays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 12x All Star, 9x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Red Sox
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee

Ramirez is in his final year on the ballot.  He received 34.3% of the vote last year, which represented the highest he has received.  That is nowhere near enough to get him into the Hall of Fame though.  It will be interesting to see in a couple of weeks when the Eras Committee makes their decision to see what they do with Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.  That will give a better idea of his chances there, though he sticks out because he was suspended for PEDs twice.  Ramirez is one of the best hitters in history, but those suspensions loom large.

ALEX RODRIGUEZ

TEAMS: Mariners, Rangers, Yankees
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x MVP (2003, 2005, 2007), 14x All Star, 2x Gold Glove, 10x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Yankees
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Not soon.

Rodriguez seems to be doing better generally than Manny Ramirez on the balloting, it certainly helps that he has a bit more hardware and played a more demanding position, but those PED allegations have kept him out. That being said, Rodriguez has more time. He is on the ballot for fifth time this year and received 37.1% of the vote last year. He will likely stagnate just like Ramirez.

FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ

TEAMS: Angels, Mets, Brewers, Orioles, Tigers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 4x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Angels
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe?

Now that Billy Wagner has been elected, I could see a case building for Rodriguez over the next few years. He has a long way to go as he was at just 10.2% of the vote last year, but he is only in his fourth year this year. Rodriguez has more career saves and more innings pitched than Wagner, and also has the all-time single season saves record. But he was not as dominant as Wagner.

JIMMY ROLLINS

TEAMS: Phillies, Dodgers, White Sox
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: MVP (2007), 3x All Star, 4x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably not.

Rollins is on his fifth year on the ballot and received 18% of the vote last year. He increased quite a bit last year and could start to build a better case, but it is not looking terribly likely. The real test will be this year when there is a fairly weak first-year class, led by his 2008 Phillies teammate Cole Hamels.

CHASE UTLEY

TEAMS: Phillies, Dodgers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 6x All Star, 4x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Eventually.

Utley made a big gain in his second year on the ballot, jumping up to 39.8% of the vote. It will be interesting to see what happens with his candidacy over the next several years. I think he will get in, but it may be awhile. He is the lynchpin of the analytics versus traditional stats argument currently on the ballot.

OMAR VIZQUEL

TEAMS: Mariners, Indians, Giants, Rangers, White Sox, Blue Jays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star, 11x Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Indians
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably not.

Yep, we are still doing this. Vizquel is now in his ninth year on the ballot with one of the weirdest voting history I have ever seen. Last year, he received 17.9%, up slightly from the 17.7% that he bottomed out at the year before. He topped out at 52.6% in just his third year on the ballot and looked like an easy bet to make it. I could see him get in via an Eras Committee, but I really do not think he deserves to be.

DAVID WRIGHT

TEAMS: Mets
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 7x All Star, 2x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mets
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Tough to say.

Wright gained a little support in his second year, making it to 8.1% of the vote. He could be a player that builds support over time and may get in. He has a similar case to Dustin Pedroia in that he was a one-team player who had a very high peak, but a career shortened by injury so the career numbers are not quite there. But Pedroia played a more demanding position, had more hits and won a couple of major awards. So Wright is maybe a little bit of a weaker candidate than Pedroia.

PREDICTIONS:

Let's see, what do I think is going to happen here?

1.  Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones finally get elected.

2.  Dustin Pedroia, Chase Utley, Andy Pettitte and Felix Hernandez all get large gains as a result of being stronger cases on a very weak ballot.

3.  Of the first-timers, only Cole Hamels makes it to a second year on the ballot.

4.  Manny Ramirez makes a modest gain, but drops off the ballot due to being on for ten years.  

5.  Alex Rodriguez makes a modest gain.

6.  Torii Hunter and Omar Vizquel both manage to get headed in a positive direction.

Hall of Fame Worthy? Pt. 22: Doc Cramer

Some time ago I was reading Bill James's book on Cooperstown, Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame?.  In one section, he included a selection of letters and correspondence from people about players they thought should be in the Hall of Fame that had not been inducted.  A lot of the names were players many would expect, but one name stuck out to me, as a Red Sox fan.  That name was Roger "Doc" Cramer.  

Doc Cramer spent 20 years in the Majors from 1929 through 1948.  He spent seven years with the Philadelphia Athletics, seven with the Detroit Tigers, five with the Red Sox and one with the Washington Senators.  During that time he racked up 2,705 hits and a career batting average of .296.  He led the league in hits once with 200 hits in 1940.  He was an All Star five times during his career, four times with the Red Sox and once with the Athletics.  He was a good defensive center fielder (though not a great one) and led the league several times in various categories, mostly due to the fact that for most of his career, he played almost every day.  

So, that all sounds pretty good right?  Well...

The biggest problem with Cramer's candidacy is that his career bWAR was 13.3.  That is shockingly low for a player that played 20 years in the Majors and generally had decent numbers.  He had a slash line of .296/.340/.375, so while his average was good, he was below-average in getting on base and well below average in power.  That is borne out by his 396 career doubles (averaging 29 a year) and 37 career home runs (averaging three a year).  To put this number into perspective, Carl Yastrzemski's 1967 season was a bWAR of 12.5.  In one season, Yaz was worth almost as much as Doc Cramer's entire career.

Cramer's JAWS scores, a good indicator of Hall of Fame candidacy, places him at 235th all-time at center field.  The only Hall of Famer lower than Cramer is Pete Hill, who played in the Negro Leagues.  That is simply not going to get it done.  And no, WAR and JAWS are not everything, but when the numbers are that low, there just is not going to be a reasonable argument.

THE VERDICT

No, Doc Cramer is not getting into the Hall of Fame.  Nor should he.  He was a good player for a long time, but he was nowhere near Hall of Fame-worthy. 

Contemporary Era Ballot

So, the Contemporary Era Ballot was released this week and I have to say, I am not happy about it.  For whatever reason, the powers that be are making things extremely difficult for players to be elected starting this year.  There are eight players on this year's ballot and most of them are players that have been on this ballot year after year after year.

So anyway, let's look at this year's candidates:

BARRY BONDS

I don't know what more there is to say about Bonds.  We all know why he should be in and we all know why he is not.  I think it's time to put him in.  

ROGER CLEMENS

Everything I said about Bonds goes for Clemens as well.  There is the added caveat that Clemens is the only player who played for the Red Sox on the ballot, so he is of course my preference to get in this year.  I will talk more about why the fact that Clemens is the only Red Sox player on this ballot is so aggravating.

CARLOS DELGADO

Delgado is one of those players that is a lot better than he is remembered for being.  Part of that was playing in the relative anonymity of Toronto during a time when they were not as good.  He hit 473 home runs in his career as well as driving in 1,512 runs.  His slash line was an impressive .280/.383/.546 but he was kind of lost in the shuffle of the steroid era.  So, is he a Hall of Famer?  I don't really see it, but he was damn good.  I think he is a bit below the standard for Hall of Fame first-basemen.  An interesting sidenote about Delgado is that he was in the Red Sox system at the very end of his career in 2010.  He appeared in five games for the Pawtucket Red Sox.

JEFF KENT

This is the kind of player I could easily see getting elected.  Kent is the record holder for most home runs by a second-baseman.  He had 377 career home runs and was the NL MVP in 2000.  The issue with that distinction is that he was really a second-baseman in name only.  He was not generally a very good defensive second-baseman.  I could see him getting in and have advocated for him in the past.  He peaked at just 46% of the writers' vote though, so it seems like a longshot for him to get in now.

DON MATTINGLY

How many chances is Mattingly going to get?  He has been on this ballot four times in a row.  He has not been elected yet.  He was on the writers' ballot for 15 years, with a high of 28% of the vote and made it to 50% of the vote the last time he was on this ballot.  He is not really all that close to election.  Meanwhile, there are multiple other players who seem to not get anything close to a decent shot.  Nothing would really surprise me regarding his candidacy, but I don't think he is quite there for the Hall of Fame.  He had four or five great seasons, and was mostly ordinary outside of those seasons.  He is well below the standard for Hall of Fame first-basemen.

DALE MURPHY

Murphy also seems to get endless opportunities at election, but is further away than Mattingly.  I get it, he won back-to-back MVP awards and his peak was definitely longer than Mattingly's.  I could see him getting in first, but he is still below the Hall of Fame standard for his position, mostly because after his peak was done, he was mostly awful.  He was a nice, clean-cut guy, I get it, but a line of .265/.346/.469 and 46.5 WAR out of a center fielder is not getting it done.  His highest vote total on the writers' ballot was 23%.

GARY SHEFFIELD

Sheffield's candidacy is kind of a blend of Barry Bonds and Jeff Kent.  He was implicated in the same BALCO scandal as Bonds for using PEDs but was largely unscathed by the controversy as a result of claiming ignorance.  He generally performed well in the writers' voting, making it up to 63% of the vote in his final year on the ballot.  He had 509 home runs and a 140 OPS+, but his surly personality did not endear him to many teams.  He played for eight teams in his career, only once for more than four seasons.  

FERNANDO VALENZUELA 

Probably the biggest surprise on the ballot.  I'm not sure his placement here makes much of any sense.  He certainly had an impressive peak and was the first (and so far only) pitcher to win the Rookie of the Year and Cy Young Award in the same season (1981).  The problem is that he pitched for Tommy Lasorda who tended to completely ruin his pitchers.  Valenzuela was certainly famous enough, pitching for Los Angeles and being Mexican-born, but he was not a pioneer.  There had been Mexican players before.  Valenzuela's career simply does not match up to being a Hall of Famer, he had a record of 173-153 with a 3.54 ERA (104 ERA+).  He notched 2,074 strikeouts.  He only lasted two years on the ballot.  I just do not see it with him.  

SO WHO IS MISSING?

Taking off my Red Sox fandom for a moment, I think the biggest player that is missing is Lou Whitaker.  I simply do not understand why he cannot seem to even make the ballot.  He absolutely should be in the Hall of Fame.  Shortly behind him is Dwight Evans and Curt Schilling.  Again, both players are well-qualified to be Hall of Famers.  And yes, both of them played for the Red Sox, so I have another reason to want them in, but those three players are easily more qualified than almost everyone on this ballot outside of Bonds, Clemens and maybe Sheffield.  I just do not understand what is happening with these ballots.

PREDICTIONS

Well, like I said early on, my preference would be for Bonds and Clemens to finally make it in, if only so we don't have to worry about those guys showing up on these ballots in the future.  Plus, it's hardly a Hall of Fame without the all-time home run leader and a guy on the short list of greatest pitcher of all time.  But a lot of stupid things have happened with this vote since Harold Baines managed to get elected and the stupidest realistic thing I can think of is for Don Mattingly and Dale Murphy to get in (the stupidest thing would be for Valenzuela to get in, but that doesn't seem likely, of course neither did Baines getting in), so I guess that's my prediction.  The new rule going into effect this year is that anyone who does not get five votes cannot appear on the next ballot for this Committee.  If anyone goes more than once without receiving five votes, they are permanently ineligible, which is just ridiculous and insane.

Congratulations to the 2025 Hall of Fame Class

My predictions this year were pretty much spot-on.  It helps that I already saw several weeks worth of ballots, so I am not giving myself too much credit.  As I said in the last post, I may not have picked Sabathia to get in on his first ballot at the beginning of the voting cycle. 

So, anyway, congratulations to Ichiro Suzuki, C.C. Sabathia and Billy Wagner.  Wagner is the big one for the purpose of this blog since he is the only one to have played for the Red Sox.  I will have a Red Sox in Cooperstown post for him at some point later on.  Usually after there has been an announcement of which hat he will wear on his plaque.  It's almost for certain going to be the Astros, but I still want to know for sure (no, I am not suggesting there is even a chance of a Red Sox hat, I am not delusional).  

Let's look at the other former Red Sox on the ballot:

Manny Ramirez finished eighth on the ballot with 34.3% of the vote.  He added ten votes from last year.  He will be entering his 10th and final year on the ballot next year.  At this point there is no chance of election by the BBWAA.  The two PED suspensions have ensured that.

Dustin Pedroia's results actually surprised me.  I thought he would get enough to stick on the ballot, but he finished with 11.9% of the vote.  He actually finished higher than Wagner did on his first two years on the ballot.  He received 47 votes in his first year on the ballot.  I think there is a good possibility for him building support over time.  Maybe it will even get him in at some time.

Ian Kinsler fell about ten votes shy of sticking on the ballot.  I think he is one of the biggest snubs on this ballot (along with Brian McCann).  Kinsler received just 2.5% of the vote and will not appear on future ballots.  

Hanley Ramirez failed to receive a single vote.  This is kind of shocking to me.  I feel like his career was kind of a flash in the pan, but he was so phenomenal his first few seasons in the Majors.  That player disappeared as his career continued, but he still put up some big numbers.

As I mentioned in my last post, next season's Hall of Fame ballot first-year class is pretty weak.  The biggest names will be Cole Hamels, Ryan Braun, Nick Markakis and Edwin Encarnacion.  All of them had great careers, but none are likely to make the Hall on the first ballot.  Hamels could get in eventually.  Braun falls into the same trap as Manny Ramirez, with much weaker overall numbers.  No one else seems likely to make it through the first year on the ballot.  The only player from the Red Sox who will make his debut is Rick Porcello, the 2016 Cy Young winner.  He does not seem likely to make it to a second year on the ballot either though, due to a mostly uneven career.  

My Annual Late Hall of Fame Post

I have been without a laptop at home for a few months now.  Unfortunately, that is where I do a majority of my posts.  I am typing this right now, likely over the course of a few days, at the office.  We will see if I get this done before the results are announced.

First, I want to look at the Eras Committee election.  Congratulations to Dick Allen and Dave Parker for gaining election.  But I am extremely disappointed that Luis Tiant was once again kept out.  Even after his death a few months ago, he cannot seem to gain any traction.  It is fair to wonder if he will ever get in now.  Certainly possible, but I just do not see what is keeping him out.  His numbers are good enough (he compares favorably to Don Drysdale, Jim Kaat and Catfish Hunter, among others), he was certainly a big personality at the time, and he could even be considered something of an ambassador to Cuban baseball.  I don't get it.  Dave Parker's election could signal the election of Dwight Evans next year, hopefully.  

Anyway, here is the ballot this year:

BOBBY ABREU

TEAMS: Astros, Phillies, Yankees, Dodgers, Mets
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 2x All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee?

Abreu continues to surprise me with his support.  I am not necessarily opposed to his election, but he is a player that I definitely never considered a Hall of Famer when he was playing.  But, it is not as if his election is imminent.  He is now in his sixth year on the ballot and received just 14.8% of the vote last year.  He has gained a handful of votes, so I think his percentage will improve, but he has a long way to go if he is to ever get in.

CARLOS BELTRAN

TEAMS: Royals, Astros, Mets, Giants, Cardinals, Yankees, Rangers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Rookie of the Year (1999), 9x All Star, 3x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mets
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe next year.

Beltran is the litmus test for how the Astros players of 2017 will be treated.  He is now in his third year on the ballot and, after receiving 57.1% last year, he looks like he could just miss this year.  I do think he will probably get in next year with a largely underwhelming first-year class headed by Cole Hamels.

MARK BUEHRLE

TEAMS: White Sox, Marlins, Blue Jays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 4x Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: White Sox
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Unlikely

Buerhle is now in his fifth year on the ballot and seems to be gaining a few votes, but he only received 8.3% last year.  He was a very good, steady pitcher for a long time, but that does not really scream Hall of Fame to me, and voters mostly seem to see it the same way.  I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility for him to get him, but it seems unlikely.

CARLOS GONZALEZ

TEAMS:  Athletics, Rockies, Indians, Cubs
ACCOMPLISHMENTS:  3x All Star, 3x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger, Batting Title
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Rockies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?:  No.

Gonzalez was an elite player for several seasons, but a career on the short side and lots of injuries leave him lacking some of the accolades needed to gain election based solely on peak.  For his career, he hit .285/.343/.500 with 234 home runs, 785 RBIs and 118 stolen bases.  He finished third in the MVP vote in 2010 when he won the batting title and led the league in hits while hitting 34 home runs, driving in 117 and stealing 26 bases.  At his best, he was a five-tool player.  He just wasn't great long enough.  He will drop off the ballot.

CURTIS GRANDERSON

TEAMS:  Tigers, Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Brewers, Marlins
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Tigers or Yankees
WILL HE BE ELECTED?:  No.

Granderson was a really fun player for awhile.  I didn't even hate the guy when he played for the Yankees, which is one of the highest honors I can think of.  But there were really only a couple of seasons where he was one of the best in the game.  He finished fourth in the MVP vote in 2011 when he shocked everyone with 41 home runs and led the league in RBIs and runs scored.  But his biggest issue was a real low batting average (.249) and a ton of strikeouts.  He was a nice player, but not a Hall of Famer and will drop off the ballot.

FELIX HERNANDEZ

TEAMS: Mariners
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Cy Young (2010), 6x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mariners
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Eventually maybe.

King Felix did not have a long career, but he was absolutely dominant for about a seven-year period.  In this day and age, that might be enough for a starting pitcher to get in.  He won't get in this year, but he could easily build up support over the next several years.  This is his first year on the ballot, so he has time and early returns have been decent.  Hernandez only won 169 games in his career, but he mostly pitched for bad Mariners teams and he struck out 2,524 career batters, an average of over 200 per season during his 15-year career.  Unfortunately, he flamed out early and was done by the age of 33, but he was a great pitcher when he was healthy.

TORII HUNTER

TEAMS: Twins, Angels, Tigers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 9x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Twins
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Hunter garnered just 7.3% of the vote last season and is now in his fifth year on the ballot.  And unfortunately, he seems to be going backwards.  It is entirely possible he drops off the ballot completely this year as he has lost several votes from last year.  I am not sure of the reason behind the drop in support, but it does appear to be a reality.  He was not a real strong candidate to begin with, with a lot of other center fielders needing election before a good case can be made for him.

ADAM JONES

TEAMS: Mariners, Orioles, Diamondbacks
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 4x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Orioles
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Jones is a similar candidate to Torii Hunter.  He was a very good player for several seasons, but just does not have the numbers to garner serious Hall of Fame discussion.  There is nothing wrong with that.  For his career, he hit .277/.317/.454 with 282 home runs and 945 RBIs.  There is no shame in those numbers, but they are not going to get him in the Hall of Fame.  I can't see him lasting beyond this year.

ANDRUW JONES

TEAMS: Braves, Dodgers, Rangers, White Sox, Yankees
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 10x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Braves
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Yes, probably next year.

Time is running out for Jones.  He is in his eighth year on the ballot, but he did receive 61.6% of the vote last year and he has gained some votes so far from the publicly-revealed ballots this year.  With a very weak class next year, he has a very good shot at election next year.  If not, he will have one more chance.

 IAN KINSLER

TEAMS: Rangers, Tigers, Angels, Red Sox, Padres
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 4x All Star, 2x Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Rangers
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

There was a time that Kinsler was one of the best second-basemen in the game.  Unfortunately for his Hall chances, he had a lot of mostly ordinary seasons.  He still put up decent numbers, a line of .269/.337/.440 with 1,999 hits, 257 home runs, 909 RBIs and 243 stolen bases.  He was a very good all-around player, that just did not stand out enough that he will be able to get any real support.  He should be a player that sticks around for a little while, but I don't think he will.  Chase Utley is getting a lot of support, and I just do not see much of a difference between him and Kinsler, which is why it is so odd that I think he will drop off the ballot.

RUSSELL MARTIN

TEAMS: Dodgers, Yankees, Pirates, Blue Jays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 4x All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Dodgers
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

There were a couple of articles written before this Hall of Fame election cycle that have really highlighted the defensive prowess of Martin and McCann.  A few voters have taken that to heart and both catchers have received more votes than I thought they would.  But, you really have to accept metrics that have not been in use for more than a decade and that cannot be used to look at past catchers to make that Hall of Fame argument, because I don't think any other statistics get there.  Martin hit .248/.349/.397 (101 OPS+) with 191 home runs.  He would really have to be a great defensive catcher to get in, and without the ability to compare him to past catchers (is he really better than Jason Varitek for example?), I just cannot see the argument and I think he will drop off this year.

BRIAN MCCANN

TEAMS: Braves, Yankees, Astros
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 7x All Star, 6x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Braves
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

See above for the discussion on Russell Martin.  McCann was quite a bit better of a hitter though, as he hit .262/.337/.452 with 282 home runs and 1,018 RBIs.  He was one of the better-hitting catchers in the game for several seasons.  That same article highlighted his framing as well and argued for his Hall of Fame chances.  I think he has a better chance than Martin, because he was a very good hitter for a catcher, but I still do not think he gets in and probably won't survive this ballot.

DUSTIN PEDROIA

TEAMS: Red Sox
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: MVP (2008), Rookie of the Year (2007), 4x All Star, 4x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Red Sox
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Possibly

Pedroia is a lot like Nomar Garciaparra, a Red Sox middle infielder with a high peak, but whose career was shortened by injuries.  But I think there is a chance that Pedroia could stick around on the ballot and possibly build towards an election over a ten-year period.  He certainly had the accolades, winning a Rookie of the Year and MVP in back-to-back seasons, and he was considered one of the best defensive second-basemen of his time.  He hit .299/.365/.439 (113 OPS+) for his career, which are great numbers for a second-baseman.  If he hadn't suffered an ultimately career-ending injury at 33 and been able to put up a few more seasons, he would have had over 2,000 career hits and better final numbers.  He is a peak candidate, and his peak may be enough to get him at some point.  

ANDY PETTITTE

TEAMS: Yankees, Astros
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Yankees
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee

Pettitte is now in his seventh year on the ballot and received 13.5% of the vote last year.  He has picked up a lot of votes this year so far, but he still has a long way to go.  It is certainly possible that an election of CC Sabathia could help boost Pettitte's chances in the near future, but he has a lot of ground to make up.  I think his best chance would be to build up his vote total and get in on an Eras Committee ballot.  

HANLEY RAMIREZ

TEAMS: Red Sox, Marlins, Dodgers, Indians
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Rookie of the Year (2006), 3x All Star, 2x Silver Slugger, Batting Title
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Marlins
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

It is kind of a shame that Ramirez was not able to keep up the form he had in his first several years in the Majors when he was an absolute beast.  He had 30-homer power, hit for averages above .300, and was stealing 50 bases a season.  He was a monster.  But the speed left him quickly and the average started to tumble, he had to move off of shortstop and only the power remained.  For his career, he hit .289/.360/.486 with 271 home runs, 917 RBIs and 281 stolen bases.  He was one of the best prospects I remember coming up with the Red Sox, but was traded in the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell trade.  He returned to Boston and had one last really good season in 2016.  He was great for a few years, but not nearly long enough.  He will struggle to get any votes.

MANNY RAMIREZ

TEAMS: Indians, Red Sox, Dodgers, White Sox, Rays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 12x All Star, 9x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Red Sox
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee

Ramirez is on his 9th year on the ballot and received just 32.5% of the vote last year.  He is almost out of time and he is actually losing more votes than he is gaining in early returns.  His best chance would be on an Eras Committee ballot.  It really sucks, because he was one of the game's greatest hitters, but the PED evidence is too much for him to overcome.

FERNANDO RODNEY

TEAMS: Tigers, Angels, Rays, Mariners, Cubs, Padres, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Twins, Athletics, Nationals
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Really tough to say, maybe Rays
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Rodney is the most likely player on this ballot to fail to receive a vote.  He was a good closer, and even occasionally great.  He was dominant in 2012 when he finished fifth in the Cy Young race and had some MVP votes.  He saved 48 games and had a 0.60 ERA that season.  For his career, he saved 327 games, leading the league once (48 in 2014), but his 3.80 ERA is definitely high for a closer.  He had a long career, but it was not a Hall of Fame career.

ALEX RODRIGUEZ

TEAMS: Mariners, Rangers, Yankees
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x MVP (2003, 2005, 2007), 14x All Star, 2x Gold Glove, 10x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Yankees
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Not soon.

Rodriguez seems to be doing better generally than Manny Ramirez on the balloting, it certainly helps that he has a bit more hardware and played a more demanding position, but those PED allegations have kept him out.  That being said, Rodriguez has more time.  He is on the ballot for fourth time this year and received 34.8% of the vote last year.  He has lost more votes than he has gained in the early returns though, so unless he starts to really jump, he will likely stagnate just like Ramirez.

FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ

TEAMS: Angels, Mets, Brewers, Orioles, Tigers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 4x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Angels
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe?

If Billy Wagner gets in this year, which seems likely at this point, I could see a case building for Rodriguez over the next few years.  He has a long way to go as he was at just 7.8% of the vote last year, but he is only in his third year this year.  Rodriguez has more career saves and more innings pitched than Wagner, and also has the all-time single season saves record.  But he was not as dominant as Wagner. 

JIMMY ROLLINS

TEAMS: Phillies, Dodgers, White Sox
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: MVP (2007), 3x All Star, 4x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably not.

Rollins is on his fourth year on the ballot and received 14.8% of the vote last year.  He has picked up several votes this year and could start to build a better case, but it is not looking terribly likely.  The real test will be next year when there is a fairly weak first-year class, led by his 2008 Phillies teammate Cole Hamels.

CC SABATHIA

TEAMS: Indians, Brewers, Yankees
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Cy Young (2007), 6x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: He has reportedly said he prefers Yankees
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Yes.

The benefit of doing this post late is that I have already seen how well Sabathia in particular is doing on the ballot.  Had I posted this earlier, I would have said he would put up a very strong first year showing and possibly get in next year.  Based on early returns, he is getting more than 90% of the vote making his election this year almost guaranteed.  I am a little shocked by that, but I don't think it is unwarranted.  Sabathia was a great pitcher for a long time, but this does get back to my frustration about Luis Tiant not getting in, because the numbers are really close between these two.  Sabathia has more wins, strikeouts and a Cy Young Award, but most of their other numbers are extremely close.

ICHIRO SUZUKI

TEAMS: Mariners, Yankees, Marlins
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: MVP (2001), Rookie of the Year (2001), 10x All Star, 10x Gold Glove, 3x Silver Slugger, 2x Batting Title
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mariners 
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Possibly unanimously

Ichiro is a lock to get in the Hall of Fame.  He could be the second player ever to be elected unanimously, especially if voters take into account his numbers in Japan.  For his career, he hit .311/.355/.402 and had 3,089 hits.  Not bad for someone who started in the Majors at 27.  The only real knock against him is that his numbers look a little more ordinary after his first ten seasons in the Majors.

TROY TULOWITZKI

TEAMS: Rockies, Blue Jays, Yankees
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 2x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Rockies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Tulowitzki is another middle infielder who started off very strong and had some amazing seasons before injuries started taking their toll.  He had some big power numbers early in his career in Colorado.  He finished with a line of .290/.361/.495 with 225 home runs and 780 RBIs.  At one point he looked headed for the Hall, but he was finished at 31.  He will likely not last past this year on the ballot.

CHASE UTLEY

TEAMS: Phillies, Dodgers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 6x All Star, 4x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Eventually.

Utley had a strong showing in his first year on the ballot last year, but not one that ensures his election is imminent.  He received 28.8% of the vote and has picked up quite a few votes, but also lost several.  It will be interesting to see what happens with his candidacy over the next several years.  I think he will get in, but it may be awhile.  He is the lynchpin of the analytics versus traditional stats argument currently on the ballot.

OMAR VIZQUEL

TEAMS: Mariners, Indians, Giants, Rangers, White Sox, Blue Jays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star, 11x Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Indians
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably not.

Yep, we are still doing this.  Vizquel is now in his eighth year on the ballot with one of the weirdest voting history I have ever seen.  Last year, he received 17.7%.  He topped out at 52.6% in just his third year on the ballot and looked like an easy bet to make it.  He has actually gained a few votes this year, but he is still well off the pace to make it in.  I could see him get in via an Eras Committee, but I really do not think he deserves to be.

BILLY WAGNER

TEAMS: Astros, Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, Braves
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 7x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Astros
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Most likely this year.

Wagner fell just five votes short last year of election.  I was very disappointed.  Early returns this year are very promising as he has gained eight votes so far and has appeared on all of the new voters' ballots.  That doesn't guarantee his election, but certainly seems to be a strong indicator.  Wagner was one of the most dominant closers of all time.  I think we will finally see him in this year, but this is his last year on the ballot either way.

DAVID WRIGHT

TEAMS: Mets
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 7x All Star, 2x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mets
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Tough to say.

Wright received enough support in his first year to stay on the ballot, receiving 6.2% of the vote.  He has gained a few votes so far this year, so he could be a player that builds support over time and may get in.  He has a similar case to Dustin Pedroia in that he was a one-team player who had a very high peak, but a career shortened by injury so the career numbers are not quite there.  But Pedroia played a more demanding position, had more hits and won a couple of major awards.  So Wright is maybe a little bit of a weaker candidate than Pedroia.

BEN ZOBRIST

TEAMS: Rays, Athletics, Royals, Cubs
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Rays
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Zobrist was a good player and even a great one for a few seasons.  He had a terrific 2009 season when he hit .297/.405/.543 with 27 home runs and 91 RBIs and he won the World Series MVP for the Cubs first championship in over 100 years.  He was an incredibly versatile player who put in time at every position except catcher.  Ultimately though, he hit just .266/.357/.426 with 167 home runs and 768 RBIs.  He won't last beyond this ballot cycle.

PREDICTIONS:

1.  Ichiro, Sabathia and Wagner are all elected.

2.  Beltran and Andruw Jones position themselves for election next year.

3.  Dustin Pedroia stays on the ballot.