I recently finished reading Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame?, a book by Bill James in which he dives into the history of the Hall of Fame and looking at some of the selections and omissions. There was quite a bit of interesting information in the book, even though it is very much out of date. The book was written in 1995, so several of the players discussed as omissions (George Davis, Joe Gordon, Bid McPhee, Richie Ashburn, etc.) are not in.
Some of the most controversial work in the book is lengthy sections on why Don Drysdale and Phil Rizzuto do not belong in the Hall of Fame. That's James's opinion of course. I used Don Drysdale (and Catfish Hunter) in my discussion about why Luis Tiant belongs in the Hall of Fame. James seems to agree with my assessment on Tiant.
What I want to discuss in this post though is one page in which James makes his predictions about players to be elected in the future. So, let's look at that page and determine how he did in his predictions. I will give one point for each correct player and an additional point if he gets the year right. There are 100 points possible. But, I will deduct a point if a player gets in who James did not predict. And then I will name the players who were actually voted in by the writers for each year. I won't do the VC or Eras Committees as James was not predicting those.
Schmidt: 2 points. Nice job, but this was pretty obvious.
Rice: 1 point. Rice was on the ballot for the full 15 years. He was finally elected by the BBWAA in 2009.
Actual inductees: Schmidt.
1996: Don Sutton and Pete Rose
Sutton: 1 point. Sutton actually took until 1998, his fifth year on the ballot.
Rose: 0 points. James was aware of the betting scandal, but he believed that it was all hot air and conducted illegally. He thought Rose would either be reinstated or the writers would vote him in anyway, neither of which happened.
Actual inductees: None.
1997: Steve Garvey and Phil Niekro
Garvey: 0 points. I kind of understand because Garvey was considered a likely Hall of Famer during his playing career. He failed to gain election by the BBWAA and has not had much luck in the other voting.
Niekro: 2 points. It was Niekro's fifth year on the ballot, but he made it in finally.
Actual inductees: Niekro.
1998: Gary Carter and Al Oliver
Carter: 1 point. Carter took a weirdly long time to get election for as good a catcher as he was. He was elected in 2003, his sixth year on the ballot.
Oliver: 0 points. Despite a .300+ career average, Oliver has never had much luck in the Hall voting. He dropped off the ballot after his first appearance in 1991. I am not sure what James was thinking because Oliver would not have even been eligible for the VC until 2011.
Actual inductees: Sutton.
1999: Nolan Ryan and George Brett
Ryan: 2 points. This one was also kind of obvious.
Brett: 2 points. So was this one.
Actual inductees: Ryan, Brett, Robin Yount.
Yount: 1 point. James did not predict that three players would be inducted in 1999.
Fisk: 2 points. James was right that Fisk would have to wait until his second year on the ballot.
Actual inductees: Fisk, Tony Perez. James did not have Perez making it at all. -1 point.
Dawson: 1 point. Dawson was not elected until 2010, his ninth year on the ballot.
Winfield: 2 points. Winfield made it in on his first year on the ballot.
Actual inductees: Winfield, Kirby Puckett.
2002: Eddie Murray and Ozzie Smith
Murray: 1 point. Murray was not elected until 2003, which was his first year on the ballot. James had him retiring one year earlier than he did.
Smith: 2 points. James got this one right.
Actual inductees: Smith.
2003: Dave Parker and Jim Kaat
Parker: 0 points. Parker is still on the outside looking in. He spent 15 full years on the ballot and dropped off, never getting higher than 24.5% of the vote.
Kaat: 1 point. Kaat was only recently elected by an Eras Committee. He also spent 15 years on the ballot.
Actual inductees: Murray, Carter.
Eckersley: 2 points. Nice job here.
Simmons: 1 point. Like Kaat, Simmons was unable to be elected by the BBWAA and waited until 2020 when he was elected by an Eras Committee. Unlike Kaat, Simmons dropped off the BBWAA ballot after his first year. Again, James should have known this because it happened in 1994.
Actual inductees: Eckersley, Paul Molitor.
Boggs: 2 points. Again, nice prediction by James.
Ripken: 1 point. Ripken was elected in 2007 on his first year on the ballot. He played a couple more years than James thought he would.
Actual inductees: Boggs, Ryne Sandberg.
Henderson: 1 point. I'm guessing James did not expect Henderson to play almost forever. Henderson was elected in his first year on the ballot in 2009.
Molitor: 1 point. As mentioned, Molitor was elected in 2004.
Actual inductees: None.
Gwynn: 2 points. Very impressive prediction.
Clemens: 0 points. Obviously James could not have predicted the Steroid Era which was just getting under way when the book was written and all of the Hall fallout.
Actual inductees: Gwynn, Ripken.
2008: Kirby Puckett and Dale Murphy
Puckett: 1 point. Puckett retired suddenly as a result of glaucoma. I'm guessing James thought he would stick around longer than he did, and there is no reason to believe that would not have been the case at the time.
Murphy: 0 points. During his playing career, Murphy was thought of as a future Hall of Famer, there was even some thought he would make it in as early as 1999. But he is still waiting.
Actual inductees: Rich Gossage.
Morris: 1 point. Morris couldn't make it in through the BBWAA and was elected on his first opportunity by an Eras Committee.
Smith: 1 point. Same as Morris. Smith already held the all-time saves record by the time the book was written, so I get thinking he should be elected.
Actual inductees: Henderson, Rice.
2010: Tim Raines and Ryne Sandberg
Raines: 1 point. Raines was finally elected in 2017, his tenth year on the ballot.
Sandberg: 1 point. As mentioned, Sandberg was elected in 2005.
Actual inductees: Dawson.
2011: Barry Bonds and Joe Carter
Bonds: 0 points. Like I said with Clemens, there was no reason to believe Bonds would get caught up in a PED scandal as of 1995.
Carter: 0 points. Carter was much more famous than he was good. He dropped off the ballot after his first year, failing to get five percent of the vote, in 2004.
Actual inductees: Roberto Alomar, Bert Blyleven. James did not have Blyleven getting in. -1 point.
Butler: 0 points. He dropped off after his first ballot in 2003. I'm a little surprised James had him getting in.
Cone: 0 points. Cone also dropped off after his first ballot in 2009. I do think Cone should be re-visited.
Actual inductees: Barry Larkin. James did not have him getting in. -1 point.
2013: Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker
Trammell: 1 point. Trammell also had to wait for an Eras Committee.
Whitaker: 0 points. Whitaker is still on the outside looking in, dropped after the first ballot, and he is one of the biggest Hall of Fame snubs. It was a nice idea to have the long-time double play partners in the same year, but it didn't happen.
Actual inductees: None.
2014: Goose Gossage and Don Mattingly
Gossage: 1 point. Gossage was actually elected in 2008.
Mattingly: 0 points. Another player who was thought to be a Hall of Famer during his career, he retired before he could hit any major milestones. He has not been treated much better by the Eras Committees.
Actual inductees: Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Frank Thomas. James did not have Glavine. -1 point.
2015: Jack McDowell and Greg Maddux
McDowell: 0 points. Wow, this is easily James's biggest reach. He dropped off after his first ballot in 2008.
Maddux: 1 point. Maddux made it in 2014.
Actual inductees: Craig Biggio, Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz. Hard to hold these against him as none of them were big stars yet in 1995, but still. -4 points.
2016: Fred McGriff and Dwight Gooden
McGriff: 1 point. McGriff had to wait until his first time eligible by an Eras Committee.
Gooden: 0 points. Gooden could never truly get back to his dominance in the mid 1980's. He was one-and-done.
Actual inductees: Ken Griffey Jr., Mike Piazza. -1 for Piazza, which is a little surprising given his first couple years.
2017: Frank Thomas and Ruben Sierra
Thomas: 1 point. Thomas was elected in 2014.
Sierra: 0 points. Sierra was mostly a role player in the second half of his career and failed to get a single vote in his one year on the ballot.
Actual inductees: Jeff Bagwell, Raines, Ivan Rodriguez. -1 for Rodriguez, though it's not shocking since he did not become a good hitter until the mid 90's.
2018: Ken Griffey Jr. and Roberto Alomar
Griffey: 1 point. Griffey was inducted in 2016.
Alomar: 1 point. Alomar was inducted in 2011.
Actual inductees: Chipper Jones, Vladimir Guerrero, Trevor Hoffman, Jim Thome. -3. I am not deducting for all four because Guerrero had not even started his career in 1995. Maybe it's still too harsh.
Bagwell: 1 point. Bagwell was elected in 2017.
Gonzalez: 0 points. Gonzalez had a rough second half of his career and was one-and-done.
Actual inductees: Roy Halladay, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, Mariano Rivera. He did not predict any of these, but only Martinez and Mussina were active before 1995, so -2 points.
So how did he do? Of the 100 possible points, he scored 44, but lost 15 points due to failing to predict some players, so a score of 29. I don't know that I would have done any better, so this was pretty good. I was probably too harsh with some of the deductions. Based on the stats available, players like Pedro Martinez, Trevor Hoffman, Ivan Rodriguez, Jim Thome and Chipper Jones would have been very difficult to predict in 1995.
I think you should dock another 29 points for him failing to predict a then four year old Mike Trout would become a lock by 2019.
ReplyDeleteDefinitely. Who didn't see that one coming?
Delete