First of all, congratulations to Jim Leyland on being named to the Hall of Fame. The longtime manager of the Pirates, Marlins, Rockies and Tigers had a lifetime record of 1,769-1,728 and led the Pirates to three straight NL East titles. He also led the Marlins to their first World Championship and led the Tigers to two AL Pennants.
Once again, I will not be voting this year. Not because I want to, but because apparently you have to be a member of some organization to do so. Ridiculous I say.
So, here's my annual run-down:
BOBBY ABREU
TEAMS: Astros, Phillies, Yankees, Dodgers, Mets
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 2x All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee?
As I said last year, Abreu has a surprising argument for the Hall of Fame. It is an analytics-driven case, and by and large, the new breed of voters have been more and more in the vein. The biggest argument against him is that he was not often considered a star while he was playing, as evidenced by the fact that he only appeared in the All Star Game twice and never finished higher than 12th on the MVP ballot. Abreu is on his fifth year on the ballot, and after a modest gain last finished at 15.4%. He's going to need some major support in the coming years to make it in.
TEAMS: Orioles, Devils Rays, Royals, Pirates, Blue Jays, Braves, Mets, Phillies
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 6x All Star, 3x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Blue Jays
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably not.
Man, Bautista had a weird career. For the first six years of his career, he was a journeyman utility player with a little bit of pop. Then, he settled in Toronto and, for six seasons, he was an offensive force, finishing in the top ten of the MVP race four times and leading the league in home runs twice. He even has a signature postseason moment. But then, he went back to being ordinary. His career numbers come to .247/.361/.475 with 344 home runs and 975 RBIs. Certainly impressive numbers, but probably not the type to get him in to Cooperstown. He definitely deserves to be in the Blue Jays Hall of Fame though.
TEAMS: Royals, Astros, Mets, Giants, Cardinals, Yankees, Rangers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Rookie of the Year (1999), 9x All Star, 3x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mets
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably soon, but not this year.
In his first year on the ballot, Beltran received 46.8% of the vote. There have been examples in the past of players who were penalized for bad acts and then went on to election very quickly, with the most obvious example being Roberto Alomar. I do not think Beltran's involvement in the Astros cheating scandal will be as easy to wipe away, but I think he could get in in a few years. If he makes a big gain this year, it could be as soon as next season. I just do not think he has a 30% increase in him this year.
TEAMS: Dodgers, Mariners, Red Sox, Rangers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 4x All Star, 5x Gold Glove, 4x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Rangers
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: First-ballot inductee
The only real question is whether Beltre will be unanimous. I think that is unlikely, there has only been one unanimous inductee, but it is real damn hard to see an argument against voting for him. As a third-baseman, Beltre elipsed 400 home runs and 3,000 hits. He finished in the finished in the top ten of the MVP voting six times, including second in 2004. He had a bit of a down-turn in his career when he played for the Mariners after signing a big deal in 2005, but rejuvenated it with the all-time best one-year stint in Red Sox history. After that, he went to the Rangers and continued to put up great numbers for the rest of his career. He is an absolute lock.
TEAMS: White Sox, Marlins, Blue Jays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 4x Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: White Sox
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Unlikely
Buehrle is on his fourth year on the ballot and received just 10.8% of the vote last year. He does not seem to be gaining any meaningful support among voters, so I think he will likely continue to stagnate on the ballot. He had a nice career, but his value came more in his durability than any real greatness, as he only once finished in the Cy Young voting, and that was fifth. The only categories he ever led the league in were mostly games started and innings pitched (and hits allowed). He certainly belongs in the White Sox Hall of Fame though.
TEAMS: Indians, Expos, White Sox, Angels, Red Sox, Yankees, Athletics, Mets, Braves, Twins, Rangers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Cy Young (2005), 4x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Really tough to say, probably blank
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Colon was one of the great characters in the league, particularly after a second half career resurgence with the A's and Mets, and was even once a dominant starting pitcher, evidenced by his Cy Young Award in 2005 with the Angels. That being said, he has one major mark against him, a PED suspension in 2012. There are historically great players who have been unable to overcome that mark by being elected, so there is no chance that even a mostly lovable player who hung around for a long time will be able to do so. Colon's career numbers of 247-188, 4.12 ERA and 2,535 strikeouts do not stand out enough to merit election, even if he did not have the suspension. I really like Colon, but it is hard to imagine him doing more than being able to barely stay on the ballot.
TEAMS: Rangers, Padres, Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 4x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Padres
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Gonzalez was a consistent offensive threat for several years and even a great hitter. That being said, his somewhat brief, 15-year career did not allow for any major career milestones. His career line of .287/.358/.485 with 317 home runs and 1,202 RBIs are very impressive numbers, just not good enough to merit induction. He finished in the top ten of MVP balloting three times and led the league in RBIs, hits, games played and walks once each, in separate seasons. Gonzalez was a very good defensive first-baseman as well, so he does have that rare combination going for him. Gonzalez had a terrific career, but he just does not rise to the level of Hall of Fame. I do think he should receive a few votes.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 3x Gold Glove, 4x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Rockies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Yes.
Helton made it up to 72.2% of the vote last year. He looks like a strong bet to make it in this year. And it is about time. Helton hit .316/.414/.539 with 369 home runs and 1,406 RBIs and 2,519 hits. And one can see where the dividing line is between Helton and Gonzalez above. There was once concern about whether voters would view Helton as a product of Coors Field, and that certainly seems to have delayed his election, but it looks like that is finally waning.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 7x All Star, 4x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Cardinals maybe?
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably not
Holliday is one of the more underrated candidates on this year's ballot, but that does not mean I think he will get in. He's just better than I remembered him being. For his career, Holliday hit .299/.379/.510 with 316 home runs, 1,220 RBIs and 2,096 hits. He had an incredible 2007 season that saw him finish second in the MVP vote while leading the league in batting average, hits, doubles and RBIs. I could see him sticking on the ballot, but I doubt he will ever get elected.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 9x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Twins
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably not.
Hunter is in his fourth year on the ballot and only had 6.9% of the vote last year. With a stacked ballot this year, he is in danger of dropping off the ballot entirely. Hunter was a dynamic player who probably looked better defensively than he actually was, but might have been a better hitter than he was given credit for. He hit .277/.331/.461 with 353 home runs, 1,391 RBIs and 2,452 hits. I could see him eventually becoming an interesting candidate for an Eras Committee, but he will not get elected through the BBWAA.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 10x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Braves
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Yes
Jones is in his 7th year on the ballot and made it to 58.1% of the vote, so it looks like he could make it in in the next couple of years. Jones is a superior candidate to Hunter, with significantly more home runs and historically great defense in center field. The only thing keeping Jones from election is the memory of the last several years of his career when his offense suddenly evaporated. He looks like he should get elected before he drops off the ballot.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Indians probably
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably not.
Martinez began his career as a bat-first catcher with Cleveland before eventually his defensive deficiencies caught up with him and he moved to designated hitter full-time by the time he joined the Tigers in 2011. For his career he hit .295/.360/.455 with 246 home runs and 1,178 RBIs, to go along with 2,153 hits. He might have had a better chance at the Hall had he stayed behind the plate for his entire career, even though he was not great there. As it is, for a player who spent half his career as a DH, he did not hit enough to get in.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: MVP (2009), 6x All Star, 3x Gold Glove, 5x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Twins
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Yes
Mauer could get in on the first ballot. There is no doubt he will get in eventually, but I think he could sneak in this year. For ten years as a catcher, Mauer won three batting titles and an MVP award. And he finished in the top ten of MVP voting three other times. The only knock against him is that he moved off of catcher and became a somewhat ordinary first-baseman after 2013. The last five years of his career were nowhere near as impressive and sort of taint the memories of how great he was as a catcher. His career numbers were .306/.388/.439 with 143 home runs, 923 RBIs and 2,123 hits. He will get in.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Yankees
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably not.
Pettitte is on his sixth year on the ballot and received just 17% of the vote last year. I think he could be a candidate on an Eras Committee at some point, but I do not really see it. Points in Pettitte's favor include his postseason success (19-11 record, 3.81 ERA) and his reasonably high win total (254). But he has a couple of knocks against him, his career ERA of 3.85 is pretty high, and the big one: he was named specifically on the Mitchell Report. He claims he was using HGH to heal from an injury, but for the most part, voters do not tend to make much distinction. It is hard to imagine him getting in unless things change on that front.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star, 4x Gold Glove, 1x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Reds
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Phillips was a very good player and fun to watch, but he is one of the more likely players to not receive a single vote this year. As a second-baseman, his career numbers of .275/.320/.420 with 211 home runs, 209 stolen bases, 951 RBIs and 2,029 hits, are impressive, but not nearly enough to gain election. He was a five-tool player though with four Gold Gloves on his resume, as well as a 30/30 season. But he only had two seasons when he received any MVP support and only made it to three All Star games. Perhaps if he had not played the bulk of his career in the anonymity of bad Cincinnati Reds teams, we might be having a different discussion, but his 24.1 career WAR is not getting it done. He is better than I remember, but not enough. I do want to give mention to the last home run of his career with the Red Sox though.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 12x All Star, 9x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Red Sox
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee
Ramirez is on his eighth year on the ballot and received 33.2% of the vote last year. He just is not making any momentum towards election and only has three years left. So, he will be left to an Eras Committee. His career numbers are a no-brainer, but Ramirez has not one, but two, PED suspensions to contend with, and that is just not something feasible with the way that voters look at things right now. That's a shame, because Ramirez was one of the greatest hitters in history.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 4x All Star, 1x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mets
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Early in his career, Reyes looked like a potential Hall of Famer. His speed numbers were electrifying and he typically hit for high averages as well. He led the league in stolen bases three times, hits once, triples four times and even won a batting title in 2011. Unfortunately, his speed started to wane and his average went to more pedestrian territory. His career numbers were a line of .283/.334/.433 with 2,138 hits, 517 stolen bases, 145 home runs and 719 RBIs. He was a very good, even sometimes great, player, but not good enough for the Hall.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x MVP (2003, 2005, 2007), 14x All Star, 2x Gold Glove, 10x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Yankees
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Not soon.
The numbers say that A-Rod is one of the greatest players in history. But, much like Barry Bonds, Rodriguez continues to be on the outside looking in as a result of his admitted usage of PEDs. He is on record as saying that he used steroids for several years, and he has a very lengthy suspension to his name. He is on his third year on the ballot and received 35.7% of the vote last year. He is doing better than Manny Ramirez, but still does not look like he is trending towards election. He is one of the most blatant PED users, and voters are treating him as such.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 4x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Angels
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe?
The Hall still has very little idea what to do with the one-inning closer. Mariano Rivera got in unanimously, but Trevor Hoffman took three years to get in and Billy Wagner is still waiting. Rodriguez is in his second year on the ballot and received 10.8% of the vote last year, but he was an absolutely dominant closer who finished in the top five of Cy Young voting three times and holds the single-season saves record. For his career, he saved 437 games. He was not as great as Wagner, and needs to wait until he gets in, but Rodriguez could gain support over the years.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: MVP (2007), 3x All Star, 4x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably not.
Rollins is in his third year on the ballot and received 12.9% of the vote last year. It is tough to say whether he will be able to start building support on a particularly stacked ballot this year. Rollins has an MVP award to his name, was a big part of a championship Phillies team, and led the league in several categories over the years. He was also a terrific defensive shortstop. The major knocks against him are a relatively low OBP for a leadoff hitter, and a mid-career downturn. It is somewhat hard to imagine him getting in at this rate.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 9x All Star, 5x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Marlins?
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Possibly at some point by an Eras Committee.
Sheffield is in his last year on the ballot and only received 55% of the vote last year. I do not see enough of a jump coming for him to make it in this year, so his fate will be left up to an Eras Committee. The numbers are certainly there for Sheffield to merit induction. He has similar, but slightly lesser, numbers as Manny Ramirez. The big knocks against him are the fact that he was an awful defender and his name came up in the BALCO investigation. He also did not endear himself to many writers during his career. As it is, Sheffield will be off the ballot one way or the other after this cycle. I'm guessing he falls short.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 1x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Rays
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Well, it's an honor to be on the ballot. That is probably the best I can say about Shields here. Someone has to be the worst player on the ballot and I think that goes to Shields. His career numbers include a record of 145-139 with a 4.01 ERA and 2,234 strikeouts. He did finish third in the Cy Young vote in 2011, which was his only All Star appearance, and he was mostly durable, for awhile anyway. But, when you are most famous for the return a team received for trading you (Fernando Tatis Jr.), there is not much else to say. He is likely to get shut out.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 6x All Star, 4x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Eventually.
Utley is one of the more interesting cases on the ballot this year. Analytics love him, with a bWAR of 64.5 at second base, he would seem to be a cinch. He certainly had a very high peak, but he dropped off significantly afterwards. His career numbers were .275/.358/.465 with 259 home runs, 1,025 RBIs and 154 stolen bases. Very good numbers for a second-baseman, but a little disappointing after he started off so well. Utley's 1,885 hits are also low for a Hall of Famer. It will be interesting to see what happens. I think he will get in eventually, but I would be shocked if he made it on the first ballot.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star, 11x Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Indians
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably not.
The voting for Vizquel has certainly been interesting. On his third year on the ballot, he received 52.6% of the vote and looked well on his way to being elected. Then, reports came out that showed that he was truly a vile human being and his support has rapidly declined since. This is his seventh year on the ballot and last year he received just 19.5% of the vote. It is very unlikely he will make a comeback. Which doesn't really bother me because I called him the most overrated player on the ballot while he was still getting increased support. I won't go back over why that is, I covered it several times.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 7x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Astros
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably.
Next to Adrian Beltre, Wagner is the player I most want to get elected this year. Wagner is on his ninth year on the ballot and received 68.1% of the vote last year. He is very close, but not yet really a lock to get in. Wagner was a truly dominant reliever, as I have covered before. The only marks against him are his low innings count (but he was a one-inning reliever, so what do you expect?), and his rough postseason record. That is mostly tainted by a couple of bad outings, and since he pitched so little, it is pretty easy to have a big impact. If Trevor Hoffman is in, Wagner should be too.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 7x All Star, 2x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mets
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Tough to say.
Wright is an even more extreme case than Utley of peak versus career. The first ten years of Wright's career looked like a Hall of Famer, but then he declined significantly and was gone within a few more seasons. His career numbers of .296/.376/.491, 242 home runs and 970 RBIs with 1,777 hits are certainly good numbers, but do not feel like Hall of Fame numbers. What happens with Wright, and to a lesser extent Utley, could potentially have huge ramifications on how the Eras Committees treat players like Don Mattingly, Nomar Garciaparra and Johan Santana, and how the BBWAA treats Dustin Pedroia. All of those players had incredibly high peaks, but broke down due to injuries later in their careers.
PREDICTIONS:
1. Adrian Beltre gets in nearly unanimously. Two voters will not vote for him.
2. Todd Helton and Billy Wagner squeak in.
3. Gary Sheffield makes a big gain, but doesn't make it.
4. Andruw Jones and Carlos Beltran gain big and position themselves for potential election next year.
5. Chase Utley and Joe Mauer have very strong first years but neither get in this year, both in position to get in next year.
6. David Wright has a reasonable first showing, breaking 40%.
7. All other first-timers drop off the ballot.
8. Omar Vizquel continues to drop.
I'm always excited to see the vote results. I agree with all of your predictions.
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