We are a few weeks away from the announcement of who the BBWAA has elected to the Hall of Fame. Current polling shows five players have a pretty good chance, but if anything, early polling is always higher than the final numbers. I will get to my predictions later.
The Eras Committees have elected six new players that will join the possible players from this ballot. After the election of Harold Baines a couple years ago, it seems the Eras Committees are throwing the doors open to almost anyone with a reasonable argument. Buck O'Neill is a much-deserved addition to the Hall, and I can not argue with Minnie Minoso either. I do not know much about Bud Fowler, so I won't complain there, but Jim Kaat, Gil Hodges and Tony Oliva are pretty iffy. Maybe this helps get Dwight Evans and Luis Tiant in.
Anyway, here are the players on the ballot.
TEAMS: Astros, Phillies, Yankees, Dodgers, Mets
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 2x All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: Possibly.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe at some point.
Abreu has a better case for election than I thought he did. It is true that at no point during his career that I thought he was a Hall of Famer. Abreu though did have a career line of .291/.395/.475 with 288 career home runs and 1,363 RBIs. He also had 574 career doubles. Abreu received MVP consideration in six seasons. It would be surprising to see him in, but stranger things have happened.
TEAMS: Pirates, Giants
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 7x MVP, 14x All Star, 8x Gold Glove, 12x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Giants
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: Yes.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably.
I don't know that there is anything to say about Bonds at this point. He is one of the greatest players in history and holds the all-time and single season home run records. Steroid allegations taint his legacy, but he should already be in.
TEAMS: White Sox, Marlins, Blue Jays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 4x Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: White Sox
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: No.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Buehrle was a very good pitcher for many years, turning in a 16-year career. But he only received Cy Young consideration in one year. Generally the only thing he led the league in were durability-related stats like starts and innings pitched. I do not see a strong case here, but he was very good.
TEAMS: Red Sox, Blue Jays, Yankees, Astros
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: MVP, 7x Cy Young, 11x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Red Sox
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: Yes.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Yes.
Like Bonds, Clemens is one of the greatest of all time. Like Bonds though, steroid allegations have affected his chances at the Hall. I am sure he will eventually get in, maybe even this year.
TEAMS: Rays, Red Sox, Dodgers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 4x All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Rays
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: No.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Crawford looked like he could be headed to the Hall when he hit free agency. He had 409 stolen bases under his belt and led the league in the category four times, as well as triples four times. But he struggled in Boston after signing a huge contract and never regained his earlier success.
TEAMS: Brewers, Tigers, Rangers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 6x All Star, 3x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Brewers
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: No.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Like his father, Fielder hit 50 home runs one season during his career. He led the league in home runs once, RBIs once and walks once. He finished in the top five in the MVP race four times. But his career was shortened due to injuries, and he failed to come close to any major milestones.
TEAMS: Rockies
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 3x Gold Glove, 4x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Rockies
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: Maybe.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Possibly.
Helton looks like a dark horse candidate to get in the Hall of Fame at some point. His early years were terrific as he was a complete hitter. He eventually lost much of his power but settled in as a high-average contact hitter. He probably should have won the 2000 N.L. MVP. If he had, his chances at election might be even better.
TEAMS: Phillies
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: MVP, Rookie of the Year, 3x All Star, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: No.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Howard had a promising start to his career, winning the Rookie of the Year and MVP in his first two full seasons. Unfortunately, he declined quickly and precipitously in his early 30's and simply does not have the numbers to make a compelling case.
TEAMS: Athletics, Braves, Giants
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 4x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Athletics
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: No.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Hudson was part of the great A's rotation in the early 2000's and had the best career among the three aces. He finished in the top five in the Cy Young race three times. Ultimately though, he was not elite long enough.
TEAMS: Twins, Angels, Tigers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 9x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Twins
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: No.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Hunter was most known for his dynamic defensive abilities. He has some decent offensive numbers as well, but he was generally better defensively. He has a better case than I thought, but he still falls short, being more of a Mike Cameron-type. He pales in comparison to Andruw Jones as well, who has a much better chance.
TEAMS: Braves, Dodgers, Rangers, White Sox, Yankees
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 10x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Braves
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: Maybe.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: At some point.
Jones's case is the better version of Torii Hunter's. He was an elite defensive center fielder who also had some great offensive numbers. His case would be even better if he had not declined so much in the second half of his career. Still, I think he gets in eventually.
TEAMS: Blue Jays, Mets, Indians, Giants, Astros, Dodgers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: MVP, 5x All Star, 4x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Giants
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: Yes.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Yes, at some point.
Kent's Hall of Fame case is based primarily around the fact that he is the all-time home run leader for second-basemen. That should be enough to get him in. Plus, he was an MVP before and was one of the better players in the league for several seasons.
TEAMS: Giants, Angels
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 2x Cy Young, 4x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Giants
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: No.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Lincecum was terrific early in his career. He won the Cy Young Awards in his second and third Major League seasons. Unfortunately, he completely fell apart after his fifth season. He was never the same after that.
TEAMS: Twins, Pirates, Rockies, White Sox
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: MVP, 4x All Star, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Twins
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: No.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Morneau's case is based on his MVP in 2006 and winning a batting title in 2014. But his MVP was not really deserved and he did not come close to career numbers befitting a Hall of Famer.
TEAMS: Giants, Twins, Rangers, Tigers, Cubs
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 6x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Twins
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: No.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Nathan actually has a better case than I thought. For five seasons, he may have been one of the best closers in the game. He had a resurgence for a couple of years after that as well. If Billy Wagner ever gets elected, Nathan has to be considered as well. He finished in the top five in the Cy Young vote twice and had a career 2.87 ERA and 377 saves.
TEAMS: Twins, Red Sox
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 10x All Star, 7x Silver Slugger, ALCS MVP, World Series MVP
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Red Sox
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: Yes.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Yes.
Arguably the greatest designated hitter of all time. Ortiz hit over 500 home runs in his career, drove in over 1,700 runs, hit over 600 doubles and had a career line of .286/.380/.552. He had some of his biggest moments on the biggest stage. Only an allegedly failed PED test in 2003 when results were supposed to be anonymous and no record exists of what he actually tested positive for, causes concern for his candidacy. That and the DH thing, but if Mariano Rivera is a unanimous Hall of Famer for getting just three outs every couple days, a DH should not be discounted just because he doesn't play the field.
TEAMS: Red Sox, Phillies, Nationals
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 6x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Red Sox
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: No.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Papelbon has a bit of a lesser case than Joe Nathan. He was certainly dominant, especially early in his career. Papelbon though had his last season in 2016. Had he kept going for a few more years, he might have had a stronger case. As it was, he saved 368 games with a 2.44 career ERA. He never came close to a Cy Young Award, but was second in the Rookie of the Year vote in 2006.
TEAMS: Padres, White Sox, Red Sox, Giants
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Cy Young, 3x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Padres
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: No.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Peavy is yet another example of a player on this ballot that was great early in his career, but whose numbers declined significantly over time. Peavy was terrific through 2009, winning his Cy Young Award and leading the league in ERA and strikeouts twice, and wins once. But he became a merely good pitcher after that. He was a member of two World Championship teams though.
TEAMS: Yankees, Astros
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Yankees
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: No.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee
Pettitte was a member of five World Championship teams with the Yankees and finished in the top five of the Cy Young vote four times. He also has some decent numbers in the postseason. Despite all of this, he was seldomly an ace, and his career 3.85 ERA is not great. That said, it would not shock me if he got in some day.
TEAMS: Twins, Giants, White Sox, Rangers, Red Sox, Cardinals, Braves
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 2x All Star, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: White Sox
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: No.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Pierzynski was an offensive-minded catcher who hit 188 home runs in his career with a line of .280/.319/.420. He did gather more than 2,000 hits, which is difficult as a catcher. But he really has no reasonable argument for the Hall.
TEAMS: Indians, Red Sox, Dodgers, White Sox, Rays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 12x All Star, 9x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Red Sox (maybe slightly over Indians)
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: Yes.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably at some point.
One of the best right-handed hitters of his generation, Ramirez's legacy is marred by two PED-related suspensions late in his career. I am not a believer that that should keep him out though. He hit over 500 home runs, drove in more than 1,800 runs, and had a line of .312/.411/.585. He was in the top five in the MVP race four times.
TEAMS: Mariners, Rangers, Yankees
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x MVP, 14x All Star, 2x Gold Glove, 10x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Yankees
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: Yes.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably at some point.
Another player whose candidacy is questionable due to PED issues. A-Rod admitted to using for a few years and was suspended for the entire 2014 season. Nevertheless, he had a terrific career, hitting 696 home runs, driving in 2,086 runs, and all of this from shortstop and third base. He should get in eventually.
TEAMS: Phillies, Cardinals, Blue Jays, Reds
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Rookie of the Year, 7x All Star, 8x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies, slightly over Cardinals
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: Yes.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Yes.
Rolen was an exceptional defensive third-baseman. His numbers are actually pretty comparable to some third-basemen already in the Hall. He has been making big strides and looks to be on the cusp of election in the next couple years.
TEAMS: Phillies, Dodgers, White Sox
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: MVP, 3x All Star, 4x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: No.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Rollins had several very good seasons with the Phillies when the team was one of the best teams in the league. He even won the MVP in one season. Unfortunately, his overall career numbers are fairly pedestrian, and just not enough to merit election.
TEAMS: Orioles, Astros, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Red Sox
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 6x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies, or possibly blank
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: Yes.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee
Just a couple years ago, Schilling looked like a lock to get elected. Unfortunately, his mouth keeps getting him in trouble and voters have been turning away from him. Strictly from a baseball sense, he belongs, but overcoming off-the-field obstacles is a bit of a problem.
TEAMS: Brewers, Padres, Marlins, Dodgers, Braves, Yankees, Tigers, Mets
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 9x All Star, 5x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Marlins
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: Maybe.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Possibly.
Sheffield was a dangerous hitter throughout his career. He hit 509 home runs and had a line of .292/.393/.514 for his career. He never really seemed like a true superstar during his career though and constantly moving around sort of hurts him. I could see him getting in some day though.
TEAMS: Rangers, White Sox, Cubs, Orioles
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: MVP, 7x All Star, 6x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Cubs
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: Maybe.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Possibly.
Sosa hit more than 60 home runs three seasons in a row and hit 609 for his career. He was one of the biggest stars in the game in the late 1990's. But he also has a PED cloud over his head and was not quite as good a player other than the home runs.
TEAMS: Rangers, Braves, Angels, Yankees
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star, 5x Gold Glove, 3x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Rangers, maybe? Less time than the Yankees, but better numbers
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: No.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Teixeira was a very good player, but there are so many great sluggers at first base that his numbers just do not stand out. He was seldomly thought of as one of the best players in the league, other than finishing second in the MVP race in 2009.
TEAMS: Mariners, Indians, Giants, Rangers, White Sox, Blue Jays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star, 11x Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Indians
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: No.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe.
After some serious allegations emerged against Vizquel, voters are dropping him off their ballots in droves. It looked like he had a decent chance after last year's vote, but that no longer seems as likely. I never thought he should be in because he was a terrible hitter, and his defense was not close to as impressive as Ozzie Smith or Luis Aparicio. Might as well let Mark Belanger in.
TEAMS: Astros, Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, Braves
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 7x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Astros
WOULD I VOTE FOR HIM?: Yes.
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe.
Wagner was a dominant closer and his numbers, other than his saves total, compare favorably to peer Trevor Hoffman. Wagner still saved 422 games and struck out 1,196 batters in 903 innings. Wagner deserves a close look.
PREDICTIONS
1. David Ortiz sneaks in.
2. Roger Clemens and Barry Bonds both fall just short.
3. Players who will not get five percent of the vote and will fall off the ballot will be: Carl Crawford, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, Torii Hunter, Tim Lincecum, Justin Morneau, Joe Nathan, Jonathan Papelbon, Jake Peavy, A.J. Pierzynski and Mark Teixeira.
4. Bobby Abreu, Mark Buehrle, Tim Hudson and Jimmy Rollins will barely hold on.
