All-Time One-Year Wonder Update: Right-Handed Starting Pitcher

I recently grabbed this autograph card of Michael Wacha, so it is time to determine if he can unseat Hideo Nomo as the top one-year wonder right-handed starter.

Wacha was signed as a free agent from the Rays prior to the lockout in the offseason before 2022.  He had been a rookie standout with the Cardinals and pitched in the 2013 World Series against the Red Sox.  He pitched three terrific games in the postseason, leading up to the World Series and was named the NLCS MVP.  He pitched another great game in Game 2 of the World Series, winning it, but then losing the clinching Game 6.

Wacha was an All Star in 2015, but then injuries started to take their toll.  He was eventually allowed to leave for the Mets in 2020.  He had a rough season there and continued to struggle in 2021 with the Rays.  Not a lot was expected of him coming to the Red Sox, but he surprised everyone with the season he had.

2022 saw Wacha have his best season since his injury-shortened 2018.  He quickly proved to be the most consistent of Boston's starters, though he did still miss some time due to injuries.  Wacha put up a very impressive 11-2 record in 23 games started, pitching 127.1 innings with a 3.32 ERA.  He struck out 104 while walking just 31.  He threw a shutout, which ended up leading the league.  He recorded a 4.14 FIP, 1.115 WHIP and 3.35 strikeout to walk ratio.

So, how does he compare to my All-Time One-Year Wonder Right-Handed Starter?  Well, Wacha had a better winning percentage by a significant margin (.846 to .565) and ERA (Nomo was 4.50) and he generally had better rate stats, beating Nomo in BB9 (2.2 to 4.4) and strikeouts to walks (Nomo was 2.29).  He also ended up having a higher WAR (3.3 to 3.1) despite the fact that he pitched ten fewer games and more than 70 fewer innings.  Finally, he walked significantly fewer batters.  Nomo led the league with 96 walks, more than three times as many as Wacha.  So analytics seem to prefer Wacha.

The biggest point against Wacha is obviously the fact that he pitched in fewer games and fewer innings.  That allowed Nomo to record some numbers higher than Wacha.  First and foremost would be the number of victories.  Nomo won 13 games, two more than Wacha, but had Wacha pitched more, he likely would have tied that.  Nomo threw 198 innings as well.  Nomo also has Wacha beat in shutouts (two), complete games (two) and strikeouts (220).  Strikeouts is the biggest point in Nomo's favor as Wacha would likely not have come close to that number even if he had pitched 198 innings.  Nomo led the league in strikeouts and SO9 (10.0).  

So where does that leave us?  I am tempted to give the title over to Wacha, because he seems to have been generally better than Nomo, but health is extremely important as well.  The Red Sox were able to count on Nomo to make almost every start in 2001 and he threw nearly 200 innings.  Coupled with his league lead in strikeouts and the no-hitter, and I think I am going to keep Nomo as the winner.  Plus, there is the fact that Nomo was a more well-known pitcher and that I was generally much more invested in seeing Nomo pitch, and there is the answer.  

Any thoughts?  Agree?  Disagree?