As I (try) to do every year, I am going to be looking at the Hall of Fame ballot and give my unsolicited opinions.
RICH AURILIA:
This is probably the biggest "huh?" on the ballot. I do remember when Aurilia was a pretty good player for the Giants. He had a great year in 2001. Still, if he gets a single vote, I will be very surprised.
MY VOTE: No.
JEFF BAGWELL:
He is statistically one of the Top 10 first-basemen in history. For some reason steroid rumors have plagued his candidacy despite the fact that he was never really implicated when he played. I will always wonder what he could have done had he never been traded from the Red Sox. Boston had Mo Vaughn though who was almost as good for a few years.
MY VOTE: Yes.
CRAIG BIGGIO:
He should be getting in this year after falling just two painful votes short last year. He had a unique career, coming up as a catcher and then moving, successfully, to second base, with some center field thrown in a couple of times. He also racked up over 3,000 hits.
MY VOTE: Yes.
BARRY BONDS:
Okay, my view on PEDs: if it was legal at the time in the game, then it should not keep players out. Bonds was one of the best players in the game before the steroids. Bonds is the all-time and single season home run leader.
MY VOTE: Yes.
AARON BOONE:
His candidacy is based entirely on his ALCS-winning home run. That came against the Red Sox. He has a colorful nickname because of it.
MY VOTE: No. And not just because of his moment against the Red Sox.
TONY CLARK:
Clark had some nice seasons for Detroit after moving Cecil Fielder out of town. He was also a well-respected leader during the labor crisis of 2002, which was his only season in Boston, also his worst season. But he was never really a great player.
MY VOTE: No.
ROGER CLEMENS:
Like Bonds, he should be in despite the steroid rumors. Clemens was an all-time great pitcher who won multiple Cy Young Awards, an MVP, and a ton of other honors. He is one of the greatest Red Sox pitchers ever.
MY VOTE: Yes.
CARLOS DELGADO:
Delgado quietly put together a fine career but was largely overshadowed by bigger sluggers during his career. He actually came fairly close to 500 home runs, which I had no idea. I remember him mostly due to my little brother's fandom. Unfortunately if you are going to play a power position like first base, you better be incredible to get in the Hall.
MY VOTE: No.
JERMAINE DYE:
A fine player with some fine seasons. But again, other than some select moments, such as the 2005 World Series, he was largely overshadowed by players on his own team. Not a good sign for Hall of Fame candidacy.
MY VOTE: No.
DARIN ERSTAD:
I was a big fan of Erstad. Being a Nebraskan, I remember him from his college days as our best hitter and the kicker on our football team. So I have always had a soft spot for him. But other than his terrific 2000 season in which he racked up 240 hits, he was never really a star player.
MY VOTE: No.
CLIFF FLOYD:
Floyd was the subject of a lot of hype when he was in the minors with the Expos. But he did not quite live up to the hype. Sure, he had a good career, but he was never really in the discussion as one of the top players in the league in any season.
MY VOTE: No.
NOMAR GARCIAPARRA:
Yes his career was a little short. Yes, he declined significantly after being traded from the Red Sox. But from 1997 to 2003, he was one of the best players in the league. And he was a shortstop. I am probably biased on this one because Nomar was one of my favorite players. But he was a two-time batting champ and a Rookie of the Year. I think he should be in.
MY VOTE: Yes.
BRIAN GILES:
Giles was a pretty good outfielder for the Indians, Pirates, and Padres. He had a career .902 OPS, which is impressive, and surprising since I was only sort of aware that he was playing most of the time.
MY VOTE: No.
TOM GORDON:
Flash had quite the varied career. He was a starter in Kansas City, a dominant closer in Boston, and then became a very good setup man. He had a great season in 1998 for the Red Sox, but not much else that distinguished him.
MY VOTE: No.
EDDIE GUARDADO:
Everyday Eddie was a pretty solid closer for the Twins for a few years, but to get in as a closer, you have to be really special. Guardado just wasn't and he only ended up with 187 saves for his career. That is not going to get it done.
MY VOTE: No.
RANDY JOHNSON:
A lock for the Hall of Fame. One of the best left-handers ever. No question.
MY VOTE: Yes.
JEFF KENT:
Kent was one of the best-hitting second basemen of all time. He did it kind of quietly until he got to San Francisco when he won the 2000 MVP. He and Bonds were an offensive force.
MY VOTE: Yes.
EDGAR MARTINEZ:
Paul Molitor and Frank Thomas have paved the way for a full-time designated hitter to get into the Hall of Fame. DH is a position, though it is a specialized position. We have closers in the Hall, though it is necessary for them to be really special. DH should be the same way. Edgar was special.
MY VOTE: Yes.
PEDRO MARTINEZ:
Three-time Cy Young winner. Had one of the greatest seasons by a pitcher ever in 1999. Yes, his career was short, but he was electrifying. One of two shoe-ins for the Hall.
MY VOTE: Yes.
DON MATTINGLY:
It is probably a bit hypocritical of me to vote Nomar in, but not Mattingly. Mattingly had a similarly short peak when he was one of the best hitters in the game. One difference makes me more comfortable with that. Position.
MY VOTE: No.
FRED MCGRIFF:
If he had made it to 500 home runs, his chances would have been better. McGriff was always a very good hitter, but he was seldomly the biggest star on his own team. He very quietly put together a great career, but he never really felt like a Hall of Famer when he was playing.
MY VOTE: No.
MARK MCGWIRE:
Yes, steroids were a big issue. Yes, he is being punished, though his 1998 season helped bring baseball back to the masses. A relatively shorter career and several injury-marred years make his candidacy a little tougher. But he did hit 563 home runs, albeit in a time when everyone was hitting home runs.
MY VOTE: Yes, for 1998.
MIKE MUSSINA:
I am coming around on Mussina's candidacy. A very consistent pitcher over the course of his career. I wanted Boston to sign him in 2001 originally instead of Manny Ramirez. No real eye-popping statistics though.
MY VOTE: No, but I could be convinced.
TROY PERCIVAL:
Another closer, though with a lot better stats than Guardado. I remember him as a particularly nasty closer for the Angels. Still not enough.
MY VOTE: No.
MIKE PIAZZA:
Probably miscast as a catcher, but he could really hit. Steroid cloud hanging over him though it is pretty much all speculation.
MY VOTE: Yes.
TIM RAINES:
Overshadowed by Rickey Henderson, but he was a terrific base-stealer and leadoff hitter for the Expos.
MY VOTE: Yes.
CURT SCHILLING:
A surprisingly strong case when looking past the low number of wins. He was one of the best control pitchers of all time. He was also a terrific postseason performer. His late-career stint as one of the best pitchers in the game from 2001 to 2004 propels his candidacy.
MY VOTE: Yes.
JASON SCHMIDT:
Kind of a head-scratcher on this ballot. Occasional good seasons but not enough of them and not good enough.
MY VOTE: No.
GARY SHEFFIELD:
A great hitter for a long time, he did manage to get to 500 home runs. May have been more of a product of his era. Did use steroids, though he claims it was mistakenly.
MY VOTE: No, but I can be convinced.
LEE SMITH:
Once held the career saves record. That mark has since been obliterated. I really liked Lee Smith but if he is not in yet, he likely never will be.
MY VOTE: No, regrettably.
JOHN SMOLTZ:
More than 200 wins and a Cy Young Award as a starter. More than 150 saves as a closer. Part of a terrific Braves staff that already features two Hall of Famers. Smoltz makes three.
MY VOTE: Yes.
SAMMY SOSA:
Another steroid guy. He hit 60 home runs three times and had 600 for his career, but that is pretty much it.
MY VOTE: No, but I could be convinced.
ALAN TRAMMELL:
At least as good as Ripken, Ozzie Smith, and Barry Larkin. One of the best shortstops of the 1980's before Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Nomar Garciaparra revolutionized offense for the position. Nevertheless, he should be in, as so should his double play partner.
MY VOTE: Yes.
LARRY WALKER:
This one is tough. Other than a terrific 1997 season, he was never really one of the best players in the league. His stats may have been inflated by Coors Field, though I have not studied them in depth. A great hitter though and a tough choice.
MY VOTE: Probably not, but I could be convinced otherwise.
CONCLUSIONS
So my picks are Jeff Bagwell, Craig Biggio, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Nomar Garciaparra, Randy Johnson, Jeff Kent, Edgar Martinez, Pedro Martinez, Mark McGwire, Mike Piazza, Tim Raines, Curt Schilling, John Smoltz, and Alan Trammell.
If I was forced to do just ten, I would drop Kent, Edgar, McGwire, Raines, and Trammell, but I would have a hard time doing it.
PREDICTIONS
Welcome to the Hall Craig Biggio, Randy Johnson, and Pedro Martinez. Bagwell and Piazza barely miss. Nomar barely gets 5% to stay on the ballot.
