New Wongs and More, Plus the Jason Varitek Quest for 1,500 (#1,002)

I will start trying to get caught up on my card posts, but this will take a long time.  I have quite a few cards to get through, many of which are Connor Wong cards. As I mentioned in my post yesterday, there exists a strong possibility that Wong may not be in Boston much longer, but I have a lot of cards of him coming up.

2022 Panini Diamond Kings DK Materials Signature.  This is the basic version of this card.  I have several parallels of it.

1.  Kenley Jansen.  Jansen looks like a potential future Hall of Famer.  He spent two seasons in Boston, and though he had kind of a rough ending with the team, he was largely successful, going 7-8 with 3.44 ERA, 56 saves and 114 strikeouts in 99.1 innings pitched.  He is still active this season and has 463 career saves as of this moment.  He has an outside shot at 500 career saves.

2.  Eduardo Rodriguez.  I still wish Boston had kept Rodriguez around, but he has continued to be inconsistent since leaving the Red Sox.  He is having a particularly rough season this year.

3.  Jason Varitek.  This is the 2003 Topps Pristine Blue Refractor.  To date, this is the last Jason Varitek card I have gotten.  I should probably remedy that.

4.  Enmanuel Valdez.  At the time of the trade of Christian Vazquez, Valdez was the player I thought was the best.  His complete inability to play defense though made it easier to move on from him.  He is currently languishing in Pittsburgh.

5.  David Hamilton.  I became a big fan of Hamilton last season after he stole 33 bases in 98 games.  He hit just enough to stay in the lineup, but got hurt later in the season.  Unfortunately he has struggled this season.

This trade featured a bunch of random base cards I needed, plus a couple of minis.  I want to talk about the minis.  The first is Bianca Smith, who made big news when she became the first black woman hired to be a coach for a professional baseball team.  She ended up only spending one season in the organization before moving on.  The Jarren Duran card is a rookie variation.  Notably I got one of these cards from this insert set in a pack, and that was Garrett Crochet.  

2022 Panini Immaculate Printing Plates Yellow.  This is pretty cool, a printing plate that is autographed and features a large three-color patch.

2022 Stadium Club Autographs Orange Foil.  This card is serial-numbered to just five.

2022 Panini Chronicles Contenders Optic Rookie Ticket Autographs Cracked Ice.  This is a card that I thought I had previously.  After figuring out I actually didn't, I decided to try to grab it.

2022 Panini Mosaic Black/Gold.  This card is serial-numbered to just eight.  

I Have a Lot of Thoughts

Buckle up, this is going to be a long post.

I know I have not posted in a long time.  A lot of that is due to the fact that I still do not have a laptop at home after mine broke, there have been a lot of other things I have had to spend my money on lately.  Part of that is being so far behind in my card posts that it feels overwhelming.  I also have not been collecting much this year due to a variety of factors, chief among them is the fact that I can't seem to find any cards in stores.  And part of that has been frustration with the team (though admittedly they are playing much better lately and I have been coming around again).  I never stop following them, but sometimes I just get mad about it.  Such as the Devers trade.  That is going to be a big discussion in this post.  I want to organize my thoughts into three topics: (1) the Devers trade, (2) the status of the team going forward, and (3) who is now my favorite player.

THE DEVERS TRADE

A long time ago, I made a post about moves the team has made that I did not like.  This trade though is probably the move I have absolutely hated the most when it happened.  I disliked the Mookie Betts and Nomar Garciaparra trades, but I understood them.  I hated losing Mo Vaughn and Roger Clemens, but those felt inevitable.  This was just a slap in the face.  The timing was terrible, the Red Sox had just finished off a sweep of the Yankees and seemed headed in a positive direction, and Devers homered in his last at-bat.  And it just felt like something that was entirely avoidable.  And with the trade happening in June, most teams were not moving players yet, so there was no one the team could acquire to help make up for the sudden loss of his bat.  And the trade certainly did not help with that.

This team has had a history of not being able to hold onto its star players, with very few exceptions (Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Jim Rice, Jason Varitek, David Ortiz).  Rafael Devers was supposed to spend his entire career in Boston.  He signed the big contract extension just a couple years ago.  He was anointed the Face of the Franchise.  He was a certified Yankee killer (and Gerrit Cole in particular).  He had been an All Star three times and a Silver Slugger twice, and looked likely to do both again in 2025.  He had just moved into the top ten franchise list for most home runs.  He looked like a potential Hall of Famer.

So, what happened?

I think both sides are to blame, but I think the primary problem was with the organization itself.  There were expectations that the organization had of Devers after making him the Face of the Franchise.  And they were probably somewhat unrealistic.  First off, they wanted him to take on a leadership role, something Devers has generally been reluctant to do.  He always deferred to players like Xander Bogaerts to be more outspoken.  He has always just wanted to play.  He was not a guy to go into the clubhouse and try to get the team fired up, he was aloof and kind of goofy, more of a big kid.  

But the organization failed Devers too.  If a team wants a player to be the Face of the Franchise, there needs to be much more communication.  It is apparent the team did not communicate with Devers about wanting him to move off of third.  Moving him from third base was probably the right move, Devers has not been a terribly good defensive player during his career, but talk to him about it.  Don't just assume he will be okay with it and bring in a player that makes his move necessary.  Signing Alex Bregman was a good move, he is an elite glove at third with a big, right-handed bat, something the team needed.  But they kept saying in the press Devers would be the third-baseman and Bregman would play first or second.  Until Spring Training when suddenly the team announced Devers would be the DH.  Alex Cora, as the manager, should have taken Devers aside and talked to him about it.  Devers has a lot of pride in his ability and he has played third his entire career.  It would have been odd if he wasn't insulted that he was losing his job.  Then he was told not to worry about playing the field at all, he would stay at DH.

The season started extremely rough.  Devers didn't play much in Spring Training and looked really rusty coming out of the gate.  The strikeouts piled up at a historic pace early on.  And then suddenly, a switch was flipped and he started crushing the ball.  He looked like the old Devers.  Even better, he looked like he was having the best season of his career.  At times, he was leading the league in RBIs and walks (which was always part of his game that needed some improvement).

Things went bad again when Triston Casas (who cannot seem to stay healthy) suffered a season-ending knee injury.  Boston needed a first-baseman and speculation turned to Devers, who bristled at the suggestion.  He made comments in the press about not wanting to move positions just because the organization did not adequately plan ahead.  He was sort of right about that, first base was a position Boston needed depth at over the offseason and did not do much to address.  But when a player is making as much money as Devers is, sometimes you do need to step up.  He moved to DH fine and started to excel, but the team was in dire straits at the position.  I could see him needing to put in some work before appearing at the position, but at least don't dismiss it out of hand.  

And this is where the team reached the point of no return with Devers, viewing him suddenly as unworthy of his anointed mantle.  And then they traded him, without much in the way of shopping him around to get the best deal.  The Giants, who have been lacking a superstar hitter for years and tried valiantly to sign Aaron Judge, came calling and offered to take on Devers's entire contract and a deal was struck.  The problem for Boston is that the haul was even more underwhelming than what they received for Mookie Betts.  With the Betts trade, they at least brought in a player who could move into his spot and provide production (Alex Verdugo), a top prospect (Jeter Downs) and an intriguing future prospect (Connor Wong).  It just did not work out as Verdugo seemed unable to take the next step and Downs's development was stunted during the COVID season.  Only Wong proved to be better than expected.  The Devers trade looks less impressive and looks like the primary reason to unload him was to get his contract off the books.

Boston received four players (in order of most likely impact): Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks, James Tibbs and Jose Bello.  The only position player of the group is Tibbs, and he was just drafted last year, so he is at least two years away from the Majors.  And this goes to my biggest problem with the trade.  Boston's offense this year was maddeningly inconsistent and Devers was the most productive hitter by far.  The team clearly wanted to contend going into the season after acquiring Garret Crochet, Bregman, Walker Buehler and Aroldis Chapman.  You can't continue to contend if you move your best hitter and don't bring in anyone to replace him.  They did not get a single hitter in this trade that helps the team this year.  In fact, I would argue they really didn't get a single player period that truly helps the team this year.  

Jordan Hicks was once a terrific reliever with the Cardinals.  Not quite a closer, he had a great fastball and put up solid numbers for several years before being traded to Toronto.  He was a free agent after the season in 2023 and Boston made an attempt to sign him, but he went to the Giants who tried to turn him into a starter.  He did not pitch well as a starter in 2024 and was having a terrible season in 2025 when he was traded.  And he was hurt.  Hicks has appeared in four games with Boston to date, with some success.  But he needs to get back into the swing of being a reliever again before he can really be a key piece of the puzzle.  More than anything, Hicks was part of this deal to offset the contract the Giants were taking on with Devers as he is making approximately $11M a year through 2027.  He could be a closer option if the team moves on from Aroldis Chapman, but is not ready for that yet.

Kyle Harrison was a third round pick in 2020 and was once a Top 100 prospect.  He has pitched in parts of three seasons with the Giants, but with middling success.  He is 9-9 with a 4.48 career ERA in 39 games.  He is the most likely player to make a big impact, but his repertoire is going to have to be rebuilt.  If the Red Sox pitching lab can make something of him, he could yet become a star as he is only 23, but there is considerable work to be done.

James Tibbs was a first-round pick last year, picked one pick after Boston selected Braden Montgomery (who was shipped off in the Crochet deal).  Boston was said to have interest in Tibbs, but did not select him because Montgomery fell into their laps.  He has some power, but has not really shown it much in the minors so far.  He could become a 20-homer hitter at a corner spot, but he has some work to do to get there and he is already 22.  Jose Bello is a lottery ticket, a livewire arm at just 20 years old, but is still in the Florida Coast League.  He has a long way to go.

None of the four players is an obvious candidate to make a big impact, they all have their flaws.  Boston should have held out for Bryce Eldridge, even if they had to eat some of the Devers contract.  But, that is the biggest problem I have with this deal.  It was clearly a salary dump to rid the team of a player they tired of and not a true attempt to improve the team.  The real test will be what the team does with the money they save in the offseason.  

STATUS OF THE TEAM

So, where do the Boston Red Sox go from here?  

Unsurprisingly, the team started to struggle without Devers's bat in the lineup.  But then, a funny thing happened.  They actually started to play better.  Time will tell if they continue to play well.  They are in a similar position to where they were last year when they had a lot of momentum going into the All Star Break, but fell flat on their faces when the second half started.  As of today, they have won eight games in a row, with two more games before the break.  They will play some good teams coming out of the break, so it will be interesting to see how they do.

The problem with this team is there are a couple of position issues that absolutely need to be addressed going forward.  In general, the team is far too left-handed-heavy.  The only regular right-handed bats in the lineup are Trevor Story, Alex Bregman, Ceddanne Rafaela and Carlos Narvaez.  Specifically, the outfield is a big concern.  There is a logjam in the outfield with Wilyer Abreu, Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, Rafaela and Masataka Yoshida, with no easy answers as to how to work it out.  That's an even bigger problem since four out of the five are lefty hitters.  The team could hold onto all of them as depth for the season, but it will mean that someone will be left out of the lineup each night.  A trade is the most likely way out of the logjam, but who gets moved?  In order of least likely to most likely to be traded:

1.  Roman Anthony was the team's top prospect, and in some places, the top prospect in the game, coming into the season.  He started slow in the Majors after getting called up just after Devers was traded, but has really started to turn things on.  He isn't great defensively, but he's not bad either.  He could easily be the team's next big superstar and he should absolutely be playing every day.  They would be really dumb to trade him.

2.  Ceddanne Rafaela is signed to a team-friendly extension, is the only right-handed hitter out of the group, plays stellar defense and can even play in the infield (he played a lot of shortstop last season).  He has also been one of the team's best hitters over the last few weeks.  I do not think there is any way the team can possibly move him, but it was not long ago that he looked lost at the plate.  He has not had good plate discipline for much of his career, but he may have turned the corner.  Time will tell.  If he has, he is an All Star-caliber player.  

3.  Masataka Yoshida is ranked here, not because he's irreplaceable, but because he's basically immovable.  He is signed through 2027 for a hefty contract and he has not hit well enough to have much value in a trade.  I really like Yoshida, but injuries have been a problem, he is not good defensively, and his bat isn't good enough to make up for his deficiencies.  The only way he leaves Boston is if he gets released outright, and that's not really a good move either.  So, more or less, Yoshida is stuck here.

4.  Wilyer Abreu was acquired in the Christian Vazquez deal a few years back.  All he did in his rookie season last year was finish fourth in the Rookie of the Year race (though he should have finished higher, don't get me started) and win a Gold Glove.  He started this season on a tear, but then faded and got hurt.  He has been back to hitting well again recently though and leads the team with 18 home runs.  There are times he looks like a budding superstar, but he has often been platooned (this is due mostly to Cora's unwillingness to play him against lefties, not because he's particularly bad) and he can be very streaky.  He could fetch a significant return if he gets traded and is one of the more likely possibilities.  

5.  Jarren Duran is the most likely to be traded in my eyes.  Duran has game-changing speed and there is no denying how amazing his 2024 season was in which he turned in an MVP-caliber year.  But that season looks more like an outlier than a real indication of what he is as a player.  Sometimes a player will just play out of their mind for a year.  We saw it with Jacoby Ellsbury's 2011 season.  He has had a rougher year this year, particularly in the field, but has turned it on again lately.  The other issue with trading Duran is that he is a more vocal leader in the clubhouse.  A trade would really hurt the team, but it might be necessary to get more playing time for the other players and he could also bring in a big return. 

The infield is not actually in much better shape.  There are too many players there as well.

First base seems like the most likely position to upgrade.  Triston Casas was the first-baseman entering the season, but he struggled offensively and then got hurt, which then ended his year before he got going.  The team may look to move on from him after they shopped him last season.  It doesn't help that he is yet another left-handed hitter.  I like Casas, but I do not get the impression he is as beloved by the organization.  Right now, the team is employing a platoon of Abraham Toro and Romy Gonzalez, but neither player is really a long-term solution.  They both have solid numbers, but that is more due to using them in the right way (much like they do with Rob Refsnyder), if either were to become a true starter, they would likely be exposed.  This is the most likely position for Kristian Campbell to settle into long-term as he has struggled defensively elsewhere.

Second base is also mostly open.  Last year's primary second-baseman was David Hamilton, who was one of my favorite players last year due to his great speed.  He also hit well enough to not be a problem and was solid defensively at the position.  But he has regressed badly this season and just got sent down to the minors.  Kristian Campbell started this season at second base and started off hot.  He was the team's second or third best prospect coming into the year, but he cooled significantly and was sent back to the minors as well.  There is also Vaughn Grissom, who was acquired in the Chris Sale deal, but has never really settled in Boston and has yet to play in the Majors this season.  This is the most likely spot for top prospect Marcelo Mayer going forward if they do not move Trevor Story.

Which leads me to shortstop.  Trevor Story is the incumbent, but I get the feeling the Red Sox would prefer to move on from him as he has struggled to stay on the field and often looks lost at the plate.  He certainly seems headed to being a bust, but has been hitting well the last few weeks.  Again, Marcelo Mayer seemed liked the shortstop of the future and could certainly move here.  Ceddanne Rafaela also played shortstop last season, but he seems locked in at center field.

A lot of what happens at third base will depend on Alex Bregman.  He has an opt-out after this season.  There seems like mutual interest in signing him to an extension.  If that happens, he is the third-baseman.  If not, then this position is also open and could see Mayer move here.

Things are just really messy right now and it is not clear what the plan was in getting some of these players.  To me, the best bet would be to trade Duran, play an outfield of Abreu, Rafaela and Anthony, move Yoshida to DH full time, put Campbell at first, Mayer at second, and leave Story and Bregman at shortstop and third base.

The pitching will also need to be sorted out at some point, but due to injuries and ineffectiveness, this is less of a concern.

MY FAVORITE PLAYER

The Devers trade was devastating to me.  I was in complete shock.  Part of that is that he was my favorite player.  Sure, Connor Wong is the player I was collecting the most, but Devers was my favorite.  I have seen a lot of my favorite players leave before.  But there was always someone there to take their place.  I will show this:

1992:  Wade Boggs signed with the Yankees, but Roger Clemens was still there.

1996:  Roger Clemens signed with the Blue Jays, but Mo Vaughn was still there.

1998:  Mo Vaughn signed with the Angels, but Nomar Garciaparra was still there.

2004:  Nomar Garciaparra was traded to the Cubs, but Jason Varitek was still there.

2011:  Jason Varitek retired, but Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz were still there.

2016-2017:  David Ortiz retired and Dustin Pedroia suffered a career-ending injury, but Mookie Betts was still there.

2020:  Mookie Betts was traded, but Xander Bogaerts was still there.

2022:  Xander Bogaerts signed with the Padres, but Rafael Devers was still there.

2025:  Rafael Devers was traded to the Giants, but....?

And that's where we are.  I have been kind of reeling for weeks trying to figure out who I truly think is my favorite player.  I really have no idea.    The obvious culprit would be Connor Wong.  I have been focused on collecting him for a couple years now, but he is having such a bad season this year, I can't help but think his time in Boston may be coming to an end.  He had a good year at the plate last year, but metrics show that was mostly based on luck and he was bad behind the plate.  This year, he has improved defensively, but his bat has been so anemic that he has lost his starting job.  Part of that is due to dislocating his finger earlier on, but he has played in 33 games now and only has one RBI (a sac fly) and not a single extra base hit.  Simply put, that is not acceptable production, even for a backup catcher.  

So who's left?  The team's All Stars this year are Garrett Crochet, Alex Bregman and Aroldis Chapman, none of whom were on the team last year.  Chapman is just a short-term mercenary and the less said about his off-the-field past, the better.  I was not a big Bregman fan coming into the year, but he has won me over.  I am still not ready to anoint him a favorite.  I really like Crochet, but he does not have a sustained record of success over his career.  

The longest-tenured player is currently Tanner Houck, who made his debut late in 2020.  That's crazy.  Houck was an All Star last year, but is so inconsistent, that it is hard to truly get too worked up about him.  He had a terrible start to the year and is currently rehabbing.  I said some time ago I could see him become a closer and I still feel that may be his best role moving forward.  The next longest-tenured players, who debuted in 2021, are Connor Wong, Jarren Duran and Garrett Whitlock.  I discussed Wong and Duran above, I think Duran is a very good bet to be traded, so I don't want to get too attached.  Whitlock has the same issues as Houck, though he seems more settled into a bullpen role now.  2022 saw the debut of Brayan Bello, and I am a big fan of Bello.  Unfortunately, he is also too inconsistent to really be a favorite, but if he continues pitching like he has been lately, it's possible.

It is probably too early to pick Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer or Kristian Campbell, though any of them could push through in the next year or so, particularly Anthony.  Carlos Narvaez deserves mention as the current starting catcher, but he really came out of nowhere this season and I am always skeptical of players like that.  He is another great trade Boston made with the Yankees, so he gets special mention due to that (getting Richard Fitts and Greg Weissert for Alex Verdugo was another good one).  

So, it likely comes down to Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu.  Abreu is the better hitter, but Rafaela is better defensively (which is weird to say since Abreu has a Gold Glove and Rafaela doesn't), more versatile and has more speed.  Rafaela lately is not far off from Abreu at the plate either.  Then there is the fact that I believe there is a reasonable chance Abreu could be traded but Rafaela seems like he is settling in.  I think ultimately, that is the deciding factor, so I am ready to name Ceddanne Rafaela as my favorite player, but that this could change pretty easily over the next year depending on how he finishes the season, other team moves and the development of the three prospects.  

I'm going to need to get some more cards.

Red Sox in Cooperstown Pt. 48: Billy Wagner

BILLY WAGNER 

Years in Boston: 2009 (1-1, 1.98 ERA, 13.2 innings pitched, 22 strikeouts, 7 walks)

Best Year in Boston: 2009 (1-1, 1.98 ERA, 13.2 innings pitched, 22 strikeouts, 7 walks)

If not for Jack Chesbro, who pitched just one game and six innings, Billy Wagner would be the Hall of Famer who spent the least amount of time for the Red Sox.  Wagner was nearing the end of his spectacular career in 2009 when the Red Sox acquired him in a trade with the Mets on August 25 in exchange for Chris Carter and Eddie Lora.  

Wagner is primarily known for his time with the Astros.  He spent the first nine years of his career in Houston, making the All Star team three times and notching 225 saves.  He then pitched for the Phillies and Mets, making three more All Star teams.  He spent most of the 2009 season on the Injured List, finally making his season debut in late August.  He pitched in just two games for the Mets, but since they were not going anywhere, he was traded to the Red Sox.

Wagner made 15 appearances in Boston, accumulating 13.2 innings worth of work.  He was not used as a closer, primarily setting up for All Star closer Jonathan Papelbon.  Wagner was impressive in his limited amount of work, striking out 22 batters while walking just seven and pitching to a 1.98 ERA.  

The big knock against Wagner has been his struggles in the postseason.  He appeared in two games in the 2009 postseason in which Boston was bounced by the Angels in the first round.  He threw just one innings, allowing two runs on a home run with a walk and a strikeout.  So, his struggles continued.

After the season, Wagner signed a deal with the Braves.  It was his final season, though he made the All Star team one last time.  Wagner was on the ballot for Hall of Fame election for the full ten years, but finally made it in.  He will wear an Astros cap on his plaque.  His time in Boston was extremely short, but he performed well.  In the end, he is another Red Sox in Cooperstown.

Red Sox in Cooperstown Pt. 47: Adrian Beltre

ADRIAN BELTRE 

Years in Boston: 2010 (.321/.365/.553, 28 home runs, 102 RBIs, 49 doubles)

Best Year in Boston: 2010 (.321/.365/.553, 28 home runs, 102 RBIs, 49 doubles)

Adrian Beltre is the greatest One Year Wonder in Red Sox history.  I have done exhaustive posts on these things, I know what I am talking about.  He may be one of the greatest One Year Wonders for any team's history.  Juan Soto's Yankees stint is probably better, but I can't think of too many others.  Beltre came up with the Dodgers as a young phenom at the age of 19 and spent the first six years in L.A.  He had some good years, but suffered from some injuries.  He just never quite seemed ready to break out.  Until 2004.

2004 was Beltre's last year in L.A. and he went out on a high note.  That year, he leveraged a .334/.338/.629 line into a lucrative free agent deal with the Mariners.  He led the league with 48 home runs and drove in 121.  He finished second in the MVP race and won his first Silver Slugger.  Unfortunately, he was not able to keep up that production in Seattle, largely because the park was ill-suited to his swing.  He never hit more than 26 home runs or higher than .276.  He did cement a reputation as a top defensive third-baseman though, winning two Gold Gloves during his time in the Emerald City.  

By the end of the 2009 season, Beltre's star was waning.  He signed a one-year deal after the offseason with the Red Sox.  That year though, he completely turned his career around.  He put up phenomenal numbers and found Fenway Park to his liking.  He led the league with 49 doubles and had his best season since 2004 finishing among the league leaders in average, RBIs and slugging.  He was named to his first All Star Game (somehow he was not an All Star in 2004), won his second Silver Slugger and finished ninth in the MVP race.  

Unfortunately the Red Sox long coveted another Adrian and eventually let Beltre walk as a free agent.  The team traded for Adrian Gonzalez, moving Kevin Youkilis back to third base and there was no room for Beltre.  This would turn out to be a mistake as Beltre continued his resurgence in Texas.  He was named to the All Star team four more times and won four Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves and eventually made it to 400 career home runs and 3,000 career hits.  

In 2024, Beltre made it to the Hall of Fame on his first ballot, and it was well-deserved.  He goes down as one of the greatest all-around third-basemen in baseball history.  He wears a Rangers cap on his plaque, which absolutely makes sense, but his stint in Boston was important because it turned his career around.  He was floundering after leaving Seattle, but found his stroke again in Boston and kept it up through the end of his career.

Congratulations to the 2025 Hall of Fame Class

My predictions this year were pretty much spot-on.  It helps that I already saw several weeks worth of ballots, so I am not giving myself too much credit.  As I said in the last post, I may not have picked Sabathia to get in on his first ballot at the beginning of the voting cycle. 

So, anyway, congratulations to Ichiro Suzuki, C.C. Sabathia and Billy Wagner.  Wagner is the big one for the purpose of this blog since he is the only one to have played for the Red Sox.  I will have a Red Sox in Cooperstown post for him at some point later on.  Usually after there has been an announcement of which hat he will wear on his plaque.  It's almost for certain going to be the Astros, but I still want to know for sure (no, I am not suggesting there is even a chance of a Red Sox hat, I am not delusional).  

Let's look at the other former Red Sox on the ballot:

Manny Ramirez finished eighth on the ballot with 34.3% of the vote.  He added ten votes from last year.  He will be entering his 10th and final year on the ballot next year.  At this point there is no chance of election by the BBWAA.  The two PED suspensions have ensured that.

Dustin Pedroia's results actually surprised me.  I thought he would get enough to stick on the ballot, but he finished with 11.9% of the vote.  He actually finished higher than Wagner did on his first two years on the ballot.  He received 47 votes in his first year on the ballot.  I think there is a good possibility for him building support over time.  Maybe it will even get him in at some time.

Ian Kinsler fell about ten votes shy of sticking on the ballot.  I think he is one of the biggest snubs on this ballot (along with Brian McCann).  Kinsler received just 2.5% of the vote and will not appear on future ballots.  

Hanley Ramirez failed to receive a single vote.  This is kind of shocking to me.  I feel like his career was kind of a flash in the pan, but he was so phenomenal his first few seasons in the Majors.  That player disappeared as his career continued, but he still put up some big numbers.

As I mentioned in my last post, next season's Hall of Fame ballot first-year class is pretty weak.  The biggest names will be Cole Hamels, Ryan Braun, Nick Markakis and Edwin Encarnacion.  All of them had great careers, but none are likely to make the Hall on the first ballot.  Hamels could get in eventually.  Braun falls into the same trap as Manny Ramirez, with much weaker overall numbers.  No one else seems likely to make it through the first year on the ballot.  The only player from the Red Sox who will make his debut is Rick Porcello, the 2016 Cy Young winner.  He does not seem likely to make it to a second year on the ballot either though, due to a mostly uneven career.  

My Annual Late Hall of Fame Post

I have been without a laptop at home for a few months now.  Unfortunately, that is where I do a majority of my posts.  I am typing this right now, likely over the course of a few days, at the office.  We will see if I get this done before the results are announced.

First, I want to look at the Eras Committee election.  Congratulations to Dick Allen and Dave Parker for gaining election.  But I am extremely disappointed that Luis Tiant was once again kept out.  Even after his death a few months ago, he cannot seem to gain any traction.  It is fair to wonder if he will ever get in now.  Certainly possible, but I just do not see what is keeping him out.  His numbers are good enough (he compares favorably to Don Drysdale, Jim Kaat and Catfish Hunter, among others), he was certainly a big personality at the time, and he could even be considered something of an ambassador to Cuban baseball.  I don't get it.  Dave Parker's election could signal the election of Dwight Evans next year, hopefully.  

Anyway, here is the ballot this year:

BOBBY ABREU

TEAMS: Astros, Phillies, Yankees, Dodgers, Mets
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 2x All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee?

Abreu continues to surprise me with his support.  I am not necessarily opposed to his election, but he is a player that I definitely never considered a Hall of Famer when he was playing.  But, it is not as if his election is imminent.  He is now in his sixth year on the ballot and received just 14.8% of the vote last year.  He has gained a handful of votes, so I think his percentage will improve, but he has a long way to go if he is to ever get in.

CARLOS BELTRAN

TEAMS: Royals, Astros, Mets, Giants, Cardinals, Yankees, Rangers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Rookie of the Year (1999), 9x All Star, 3x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mets
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe next year.

Beltran is the litmus test for how the Astros players of 2017 will be treated.  He is now in his third year on the ballot and, after receiving 57.1% last year, he looks like he could just miss this year.  I do think he will probably get in next year with a largely underwhelming first-year class headed by Cole Hamels.

MARK BUEHRLE

TEAMS: White Sox, Marlins, Blue Jays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 4x Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: White Sox
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Unlikely

Buerhle is now in his fifth year on the ballot and seems to be gaining a few votes, but he only received 8.3% last year.  He was a very good, steady pitcher for a long time, but that does not really scream Hall of Fame to me, and voters mostly seem to see it the same way.  I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility for him to get him, but it seems unlikely.

CARLOS GONZALEZ

TEAMS:  Athletics, Rockies, Indians, Cubs
ACCOMPLISHMENTS:  3x All Star, 3x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger, Batting Title
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Rockies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?:  No.

Gonzalez was an elite player for several seasons, but a career on the short side and lots of injuries leave him lacking some of the accolades needed to gain election based solely on peak.  For his career, he hit .285/.343/.500 with 234 home runs, 785 RBIs and 118 stolen bases.  He finished third in the MVP vote in 2010 when he won the batting title and led the league in hits while hitting 34 home runs, driving in 117 and stealing 26 bases.  At his best, he was a five-tool player.  He just wasn't great long enough.  He will drop off the ballot.

CURTIS GRANDERSON

TEAMS:  Tigers, Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Brewers, Marlins
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Tigers or Yankees
WILL HE BE ELECTED?:  No.

Granderson was a really fun player for awhile.  I didn't even hate the guy when he played for the Yankees, which is one of the highest honors I can think of.  But there were really only a couple of seasons where he was one of the best in the game.  He finished fourth in the MVP vote in 2011 when he shocked everyone with 41 home runs and led the league in RBIs and runs scored.  But his biggest issue was a real low batting average (.249) and a ton of strikeouts.  He was a nice player, but not a Hall of Famer and will drop off the ballot.

FELIX HERNANDEZ

TEAMS: Mariners
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Cy Young (2010), 6x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mariners
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Eventually maybe.

King Felix did not have a long career, but he was absolutely dominant for about a seven-year period.  In this day and age, that might be enough for a starting pitcher to get in.  He won't get in this year, but he could easily build up support over the next several years.  This is his first year on the ballot, so he has time and early returns have been decent.  Hernandez only won 169 games in his career, but he mostly pitched for bad Mariners teams and he struck out 2,524 career batters, an average of over 200 per season during his 15-year career.  Unfortunately, he flamed out early and was done by the age of 33, but he was a great pitcher when he was healthy.

TORII HUNTER

TEAMS: Twins, Angels, Tigers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 9x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Twins
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Hunter garnered just 7.3% of the vote last season and is now in his fifth year on the ballot.  And unfortunately, he seems to be going backwards.  It is entirely possible he drops off the ballot completely this year as he has lost several votes from last year.  I am not sure of the reason behind the drop in support, but it does appear to be a reality.  He was not a real strong candidate to begin with, with a lot of other center fielders needing election before a good case can be made for him.

ADAM JONES

TEAMS: Mariners, Orioles, Diamondbacks
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 4x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Orioles
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Jones is a similar candidate to Torii Hunter.  He was a very good player for several seasons, but just does not have the numbers to garner serious Hall of Fame discussion.  There is nothing wrong with that.  For his career, he hit .277/.317/.454 with 282 home runs and 945 RBIs.  There is no shame in those numbers, but they are not going to get him in the Hall of Fame.  I can't see him lasting beyond this year.

ANDRUW JONES

TEAMS: Braves, Dodgers, Rangers, White Sox, Yankees
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 10x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Braves
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Yes, probably next year.

Time is running out for Jones.  He is in his eighth year on the ballot, but he did receive 61.6% of the vote last year and he has gained some votes so far from the publicly-revealed ballots this year.  With a very weak class next year, he has a very good shot at election next year.  If not, he will have one more chance.

 IAN KINSLER

TEAMS: Rangers, Tigers, Angels, Red Sox, Padres
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 4x All Star, 2x Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Rangers
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

There was a time that Kinsler was one of the best second-basemen in the game.  Unfortunately for his Hall chances, he had a lot of mostly ordinary seasons.  He still put up decent numbers, a line of .269/.337/.440 with 1,999 hits, 257 home runs, 909 RBIs and 243 stolen bases.  He was a very good all-around player, that just did not stand out enough that he will be able to get any real support.  He should be a player that sticks around for a little while, but I don't think he will.  Chase Utley is getting a lot of support, and I just do not see much of a difference between him and Kinsler, which is why it is so odd that I think he will drop off the ballot.

RUSSELL MARTIN

TEAMS: Dodgers, Yankees, Pirates, Blue Jays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 4x All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Dodgers
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

There were a couple of articles written before this Hall of Fame election cycle that have really highlighted the defensive prowess of Martin and McCann.  A few voters have taken that to heart and both catchers have received more votes than I thought they would.  But, you really have to accept metrics that have not been in use for more than a decade and that cannot be used to look at past catchers to make that Hall of Fame argument, because I don't think any other statistics get there.  Martin hit .248/.349/.397 (101 OPS+) with 191 home runs.  He would really have to be a great defensive catcher to get in, and without the ability to compare him to past catchers (is he really better than Jason Varitek for example?), I just cannot see the argument and I think he will drop off this year.

BRIAN MCCANN

TEAMS: Braves, Yankees, Astros
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 7x All Star, 6x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Braves
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

See above for the discussion on Russell Martin.  McCann was quite a bit better of a hitter though, as he hit .262/.337/.452 with 282 home runs and 1,018 RBIs.  He was one of the better-hitting catchers in the game for several seasons.  That same article highlighted his framing as well and argued for his Hall of Fame chances.  I think he has a better chance than Martin, because he was a very good hitter for a catcher, but I still do not think he gets in and probably won't survive this ballot.

DUSTIN PEDROIA

TEAMS: Red Sox
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: MVP (2008), Rookie of the Year (2007), 4x All Star, 4x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Red Sox
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Possibly

Pedroia is a lot like Nomar Garciaparra, a Red Sox middle infielder with a high peak, but whose career was shortened by injuries.  But I think there is a chance that Pedroia could stick around on the ballot and possibly build towards an election over a ten-year period.  He certainly had the accolades, winning a Rookie of the Year and MVP in back-to-back seasons, and he was considered one of the best defensive second-basemen of his time.  He hit .299/.365/.439 (113 OPS+) for his career, which are great numbers for a second-baseman.  If he hadn't suffered an ultimately career-ending injury at 33 and been able to put up a few more seasons, he would have had over 2,000 career hits and better final numbers.  He is a peak candidate, and his peak may be enough to get him at some point.  

ANDY PETTITTE

TEAMS: Yankees, Astros
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Yankees
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee

Pettitte is now in his seventh year on the ballot and received 13.5% of the vote last year.  He has picked up a lot of votes this year so far, but he still has a long way to go.  It is certainly possible that an election of CC Sabathia could help boost Pettitte's chances in the near future, but he has a lot of ground to make up.  I think his best chance would be to build up his vote total and get in on an Eras Committee ballot.  

HANLEY RAMIREZ

TEAMS: Red Sox, Marlins, Dodgers, Indians
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Rookie of the Year (2006), 3x All Star, 2x Silver Slugger, Batting Title
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Marlins
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

It is kind of a shame that Ramirez was not able to keep up the form he had in his first several years in the Majors when he was an absolute beast.  He had 30-homer power, hit for averages above .300, and was stealing 50 bases a season.  He was a monster.  But the speed left him quickly and the average started to tumble, he had to move off of shortstop and only the power remained.  For his career, he hit .289/.360/.486 with 271 home runs, 917 RBIs and 281 stolen bases.  He was one of the best prospects I remember coming up with the Red Sox, but was traded in the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell trade.  He returned to Boston and had one last really good season in 2016.  He was great for a few years, but not nearly long enough.  He will struggle to get any votes.

MANNY RAMIREZ

TEAMS: Indians, Red Sox, Dodgers, White Sox, Rays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 12x All Star, 9x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Red Sox
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee

Ramirez is on his 9th year on the ballot and received just 32.5% of the vote last year.  He is almost out of time and he is actually losing more votes than he is gaining in early returns.  His best chance would be on an Eras Committee ballot.  It really sucks, because he was one of the game's greatest hitters, but the PED evidence is too much for him to overcome.

FERNANDO RODNEY

TEAMS: Tigers, Angels, Rays, Mariners, Cubs, Padres, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Twins, Athletics, Nationals
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Really tough to say, maybe Rays
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Rodney is the most likely player on this ballot to fail to receive a vote.  He was a good closer, and even occasionally great.  He was dominant in 2012 when he finished fifth in the Cy Young race and had some MVP votes.  He saved 48 games and had a 0.60 ERA that season.  For his career, he saved 327 games, leading the league once (48 in 2014), but his 3.80 ERA is definitely high for a closer.  He had a long career, but it was not a Hall of Fame career.

ALEX RODRIGUEZ

TEAMS: Mariners, Rangers, Yankees
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x MVP (2003, 2005, 2007), 14x All Star, 2x Gold Glove, 10x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Yankees
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Not soon.

Rodriguez seems to be doing better generally than Manny Ramirez on the balloting, it certainly helps that he has a bit more hardware and played a more demanding position, but those PED allegations have kept him out.  That being said, Rodriguez has more time.  He is on the ballot for fourth time this year and received 34.8% of the vote last year.  He has lost more votes than he has gained in the early returns though, so unless he starts to really jump, he will likely stagnate just like Ramirez.

FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ

TEAMS: Angels, Mets, Brewers, Orioles, Tigers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 4x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Angels
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe?

If Billy Wagner gets in this year, which seems likely at this point, I could see a case building for Rodriguez over the next few years.  He has a long way to go as he was at just 7.8% of the vote last year, but he is only in his third year this year.  Rodriguez has more career saves and more innings pitched than Wagner, and also has the all-time single season saves record.  But he was not as dominant as Wagner. 

JIMMY ROLLINS

TEAMS: Phillies, Dodgers, White Sox
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: MVP (2007), 3x All Star, 4x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably not.

Rollins is on his fourth year on the ballot and received 14.8% of the vote last year.  He has picked up several votes this year and could start to build a better case, but it is not looking terribly likely.  The real test will be next year when there is a fairly weak first-year class, led by his 2008 Phillies teammate Cole Hamels.

CC SABATHIA

TEAMS: Indians, Brewers, Yankees
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Cy Young (2007), 6x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: He has reportedly said he prefers Yankees
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Yes.

The benefit of doing this post late is that I have already seen how well Sabathia in particular is doing on the ballot.  Had I posted this earlier, I would have said he would put up a very strong first year showing and possibly get in next year.  Based on early returns, he is getting more than 90% of the vote making his election this year almost guaranteed.  I am a little shocked by that, but I don't think it is unwarranted.  Sabathia was a great pitcher for a long time, but this does get back to my frustration about Luis Tiant not getting in, because the numbers are really close between these two.  Sabathia has more wins, strikeouts and a Cy Young Award, but most of their other numbers are extremely close.

ICHIRO SUZUKI

TEAMS: Mariners, Yankees, Marlins
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: MVP (2001), Rookie of the Year (2001), 10x All Star, 10x Gold Glove, 3x Silver Slugger, 2x Batting Title
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mariners 
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Possibly unanimously

Ichiro is a lock to get in the Hall of Fame.  He could be the second player ever to be elected unanimously, especially if voters take into account his numbers in Japan.  For his career, he hit .311/.355/.402 and had 3,089 hits.  Not bad for someone who started in the Majors at 27.  The only real knock against him is that his numbers look a little more ordinary after his first ten seasons in the Majors.

TROY TULOWITZKI

TEAMS: Rockies, Blue Jays, Yankees
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 2x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Rockies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Tulowitzki is another middle infielder who started off very strong and had some amazing seasons before injuries started taking their toll.  He had some big power numbers early in his career in Colorado.  He finished with a line of .290/.361/.495 with 225 home runs and 780 RBIs.  At one point he looked headed for the Hall, but he was finished at 31.  He will likely not last past this year on the ballot.

CHASE UTLEY

TEAMS: Phillies, Dodgers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 6x All Star, 4x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Eventually.

Utley had a strong showing in his first year on the ballot last year, but not one that ensures his election is imminent.  He received 28.8% of the vote and has picked up quite a few votes, but also lost several.  It will be interesting to see what happens with his candidacy over the next several years.  I think he will get in, but it may be awhile.  He is the lynchpin of the analytics versus traditional stats argument currently on the ballot.

OMAR VIZQUEL

TEAMS: Mariners, Indians, Giants, Rangers, White Sox, Blue Jays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star, 11x Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Indians
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably not.

Yep, we are still doing this.  Vizquel is now in his eighth year on the ballot with one of the weirdest voting history I have ever seen.  Last year, he received 17.7%.  He topped out at 52.6% in just his third year on the ballot and looked like an easy bet to make it.  He has actually gained a few votes this year, but he is still well off the pace to make it in.  I could see him get in via an Eras Committee, but I really do not think he deserves to be.

BILLY WAGNER

TEAMS: Astros, Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, Braves
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 7x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Astros
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Most likely this year.

Wagner fell just five votes short last year of election.  I was very disappointed.  Early returns this year are very promising as he has gained eight votes so far and has appeared on all of the new voters' ballots.  That doesn't guarantee his election, but certainly seems to be a strong indicator.  Wagner was one of the most dominant closers of all time.  I think we will finally see him in this year, but this is his last year on the ballot either way.

DAVID WRIGHT

TEAMS: Mets
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 7x All Star, 2x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mets
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Tough to say.

Wright received enough support in his first year to stay on the ballot, receiving 6.2% of the vote.  He has gained a few votes so far this year, so he could be a player that builds support over time and may get in.  He has a similar case to Dustin Pedroia in that he was a one-team player who had a very high peak, but a career shortened by injury so the career numbers are not quite there.  But Pedroia played a more demanding position, had more hits and won a couple of major awards.  So Wright is maybe a little bit of a weaker candidate than Pedroia.

BEN ZOBRIST

TEAMS: Rays, Athletics, Royals, Cubs
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Rays
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.

Zobrist was a good player and even a great one for a few seasons.  He had a terrific 2009 season when he hit .297/.405/.543 with 27 home runs and 91 RBIs and he won the World Series MVP for the Cubs first championship in over 100 years.  He was an incredibly versatile player who put in time at every position except catcher.  Ultimately though, he hit just .266/.357/.426 with 167 home runs and 768 RBIs.  He won't last beyond this ballot cycle.

PREDICTIONS:

1.  Ichiro, Sabathia and Wagner are all elected.

2.  Beltran and Andruw Jones position themselves for election next year.

3.  Dustin Pedroia stays on the ballot.