I have been without a laptop at home for a few months now. Unfortunately, that is where I do a majority of my posts. I am typing this right now, likely over the course of a few days, at the office. We will see if I get this done before the results are announced.
First, I want to look at the Eras Committee election. Congratulations to Dick Allen and Dave Parker for gaining election. But I am extremely disappointed that Luis Tiant was once again kept out. Even after his death a few months ago, he cannot seem to gain any traction. It is fair to wonder if he will ever get in now. Certainly possible, but I just do not see what is keeping him out. His numbers are good enough (he compares favorably to Don Drysdale, Jim Kaat and Catfish Hunter, among others), he was certainly a big personality at the time, and he could even be considered something of an ambassador to Cuban baseball. I don't get it. Dave Parker's election could signal the election of Dwight Evans next year, hopefully.
Anyway, here is the ballot this year:
BOBBY ABREU
TEAMS: Astros, Phillies, Yankees, Dodgers, Mets
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 2x All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee?
Abreu continues to surprise me with his support. I am not necessarily opposed to his election, but he is a player that I definitely never considered a Hall of Famer when he was playing. But, it is not as if his election is imminent. He is now in his sixth year on the ballot and received just 14.8% of the vote last year. He has gained a handful of votes, so I think his percentage will improve, but he has a long way to go if he is to ever get in.
CARLOS BELTRAN
TEAMS: Royals, Astros, Mets, Giants, Cardinals, Yankees, Rangers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Rookie of the Year (1999), 9x All Star, 3x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mets
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe next year.
Beltran is the litmus test for how the Astros players of 2017 will be treated. He is now in his third year on the ballot and, after receiving 57.1% last year, he looks like he could just miss this year. I do think he will probably get in next year with a largely underwhelming first-year class headed by Cole Hamels.
MARK BUEHRLE
TEAMS: White Sox, Marlins, Blue Jays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 4x Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: White Sox
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Unlikely
Buerhle is now in his fifth year on the ballot and seems to be gaining a few votes, but he only received 8.3% last year. He was a very good, steady pitcher for a long time, but that does not really scream Hall of Fame to me, and voters mostly seem to see it the same way. I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility for him to get him, but it seems unlikely.
CARLOS GONZALEZ
TEAMS: Athletics, Rockies, Indians, Cubs
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star, 3x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger, Batting Title
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Rockies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Gonzalez was an elite player for several seasons, but a career on the short side and lots of injuries leave him lacking some of the accolades needed to gain election based solely on peak. For his career, he hit .285/.343/.500 with 234 home runs, 785 RBIs and 118 stolen bases. He finished third in the MVP vote in 2010 when he won the batting title and led the league in hits while hitting 34 home runs, driving in 117 and stealing 26 bases. At his best, he was a five-tool player. He just wasn't great long enough. He will drop off the ballot.
CURTIS GRANDERSON
TEAMS: Tigers, Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Brewers, Marlins
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Tigers or Yankees
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Granderson was a really fun player for awhile. I didn't even hate the guy when he played for the Yankees, which is one of the highest honors I can think of. But there were really only a couple of seasons where he was one of the best in the game. He finished fourth in the MVP vote in 2011 when he shocked everyone with 41 home runs and led the league in RBIs and runs scored. But his biggest issue was a real low batting average (.249) and a ton of strikeouts. He was a nice player, but not a Hall of Famer and will drop off the ballot.
FELIX HERNANDEZ
TEAMS: Mariners
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Cy Young (2010), 6x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mariners
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Eventually maybe.
King Felix did not have a long career, but he was absolutely dominant for about a seven-year period. In this day and age, that might be enough for a starting pitcher to get in. He won't get in this year, but he could easily build up support over the next several years. This is his first year on the ballot, so he has time and early returns have been decent. Hernandez only won 169 games in his career, but he mostly pitched for bad Mariners teams and he struck out 2,524 career batters, an average of over 200 per season during his 15-year career. Unfortunately, he flamed out early and was done by the age of 33, but he was a great pitcher when he was healthy.
TORII HUNTER
TEAMS: Twins, Angels, Tigers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 9x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Twins
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Hunter garnered just 7.3% of the vote last season and is now in his fifth year on the ballot. And unfortunately, he seems to be going backwards. It is entirely possible he drops off the ballot completely this year as he has lost several votes from last year. I am not sure of the reason behind the drop in support, but it does appear to be a reality. He was not a real strong candidate to begin with, with a lot of other center fielders needing election before a good case can be made for him.
ADAM JONES
TEAMS: Mariners, Orioles, Diamondbacks
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 4x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Orioles
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Jones is a similar candidate to Torii Hunter. He was a very good player for several seasons, but just does not have the numbers to garner serious Hall of Fame discussion. There is nothing wrong with that. For his career, he hit .277/.317/.454 with 282 home runs and 945 RBIs. There is no shame in those numbers, but they are not going to get him in the Hall of Fame. I can't see him lasting beyond this year.
ANDRUW JONES
TEAMS: Braves, Dodgers, Rangers, White Sox, Yankees
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 10x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Braves
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Yes, probably next year.
Time is running out for Jones. He is in his eighth year on the ballot, but he did receive 61.6% of the vote last year and he has gained some votes so far from the publicly-revealed ballots this year. With a very weak class next year, he has a very good shot at election next year. If not, he will have one more chance.
IAN KINSLER
TEAMS: Rangers, Tigers, Angels, Red Sox, Padres
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 4x All Star, 2x Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Rangers
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
There was a time that Kinsler was one of the best second-basemen in the game. Unfortunately for his Hall chances, he had a lot of mostly ordinary seasons. He still put up decent numbers, a line of .269/.337/.440 with 1,999 hits, 257 home runs, 909 RBIs and 243 stolen bases. He was a very good all-around player, that just did not stand out enough that he will be able to get any real support. He should be a player that sticks around for a little while, but I don't think he will. Chase Utley is getting a lot of support, and I just do not see much of a difference between him and Kinsler, which is why it is so odd that I think he will drop off the ballot.
RUSSELL MARTIN
TEAMS: Dodgers, Yankees, Pirates, Blue Jays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 4x All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Dodgers
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
There were a couple of articles written before this Hall of Fame election cycle that have really highlighted the defensive prowess of Martin and McCann. A few voters have taken that to heart and both catchers have received more votes than I thought they would. But, you really have to accept metrics that have not been in use for more than a decade and that cannot be used to look at past catchers to make that Hall of Fame argument, because I don't think any other statistics get there. Martin hit .248/.349/.397 (101 OPS+) with 191 home runs. He would really have to be a great defensive catcher to get in, and without the ability to compare him to past catchers (is he really better than Jason Varitek for example?), I just cannot see the argument and I think he will drop off this year.
BRIAN MCCANN
TEAMS: Braves, Yankees, Astros
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 7x All Star, 6x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Braves
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
See above for the discussion on Russell Martin. McCann was quite a bit better of a hitter though, as he hit .262/.337/.452 with 282 home runs and 1,018 RBIs. He was one of the better-hitting catchers in the game for several seasons. That same article highlighted his framing as well and argued for his Hall of Fame chances. I think he has a better chance than Martin, because he was a very good hitter for a catcher, but I still do not think he gets in and probably won't survive this ballot.
DUSTIN PEDROIA
TEAMS: Red Sox
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: MVP (2008), Rookie of the Year (2007), 4x All Star, 4x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Red Sox
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Possibly
Pedroia is a lot like Nomar Garciaparra, a Red Sox middle infielder with a high peak, but whose career was shortened by injuries. But I think there is a chance that Pedroia could stick around on the ballot and possibly build towards an election over a ten-year period. He certainly had the accolades, winning a Rookie of the Year and MVP in back-to-back seasons, and he was considered one of the best defensive second-basemen of his time. He hit .299/.365/.439 (113 OPS+) for his career, which are great numbers for a second-baseman. If he hadn't suffered an ultimately career-ending injury at 33 and been able to put up a few more seasons, he would have had over 2,000 career hits and better final numbers. He is a peak candidate, and his peak may be enough to get him at some point.
ANDY PETTITTE
TEAMS: Yankees, Astros
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Yankees
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee
Pettitte is now in his seventh year on the ballot and received 13.5% of the vote last year. He has picked up a lot of votes this year so far, but he still has a long way to go. It is certainly possible that an election of CC Sabathia could help boost Pettitte's chances in the near future, but he has a lot of ground to make up. I think his best chance would be to build up his vote total and get in on an Eras Committee ballot.
HANLEY RAMIREZ
TEAMS: Red Sox, Marlins, Dodgers, Indians
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Rookie of the Year (2006), 3x All Star, 2x Silver Slugger, Batting Title
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Marlins
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
It is kind of a shame that Ramirez was not able to keep up the form he had in his first several years in the Majors when he was an absolute beast. He had 30-homer power, hit for averages above .300, and was stealing 50 bases a season. He was a monster. But the speed left him quickly and the average started to tumble, he had to move off of shortstop and only the power remained. For his career, he hit .289/.360/.486 with 271 home runs, 917 RBIs and 281 stolen bases. He was one of the best prospects I remember coming up with the Red Sox, but was traded in the Josh Beckett/Mike Lowell trade. He returned to Boston and had one last really good season in 2016. He was great for a few years, but not nearly long enough. He will struggle to get any votes.
MANNY RAMIREZ
TEAMS: Indians, Red Sox, Dodgers, White Sox, Rays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 12x All Star, 9x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Red Sox
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee
Ramirez is on his 9th year on the ballot and received just 32.5% of the vote last year. He is almost out of time and he is actually losing more votes than he is gaining in early returns. His best chance would be on an Eras Committee ballot. It really sucks, because he was one of the game's greatest hitters, but the PED evidence is too much for him to overcome.
FERNANDO RODNEY
TEAMS: Tigers, Angels, Rays, Mariners, Cubs, Padres, Marlins, Diamondbacks, Twins, Athletics, Nationals
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Really tough to say, maybe Rays
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Rodney is the most likely player on this ballot to fail to receive a vote. He was a good closer, and even occasionally great. He was dominant in 2012 when he finished fifth in the Cy Young race and had some MVP votes. He saved 48 games and had a 0.60 ERA that season. For his career, he saved 327 games, leading the league once (48 in 2014), but his 3.80 ERA is definitely high for a closer. He had a long career, but it was not a Hall of Fame career.
ALEX RODRIGUEZ
TEAMS: Mariners, Rangers, Yankees
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x MVP (2003, 2005, 2007), 14x All Star, 2x Gold Glove, 10x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Yankees
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Not soon.
Rodriguez seems to be doing better generally than Manny Ramirez on the balloting, it certainly helps that he has a bit more hardware and played a more demanding position, but those PED allegations have kept him out. That being said, Rodriguez has more time. He is on the ballot for fourth time this year and received 34.8% of the vote last year. He has lost more votes than he has gained in the early returns though, so unless he starts to really jump, he will likely stagnate just like Ramirez.
FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ
TEAMS: Angels, Mets, Brewers, Orioles, Tigers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 4x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Angels
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe?
If Billy Wagner gets in this year, which seems likely at this point, I could see a case building for Rodriguez over the next few years. He has a long way to go as he was at just 7.8% of the vote last year, but he is only in his third year this year. Rodriguez has more career saves and more innings pitched than Wagner, and also has the all-time single season saves record. But he was not as dominant as Wagner.
JIMMY ROLLINS
TEAMS: Phillies, Dodgers, White Sox
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: MVP (2007), 3x All Star, 4x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably not.
Rollins is on his fourth year on the ballot and received 14.8% of the vote last year. He has picked up several votes this year and could start to build a better case, but it is not looking terribly likely. The real test will be next year when there is a fairly weak first-year class, led by his 2008 Phillies teammate Cole Hamels.
CC SABATHIA
TEAMS: Indians, Brewers, Yankees
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Cy Young (2007), 6x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: He has reportedly said he prefers Yankees
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Yes.
The benefit of doing this post late is that I have already seen how well Sabathia in particular is doing on the ballot. Had I posted this earlier, I would have said he would put up a very strong first year showing and possibly get in next year. Based on early returns, he is getting more than 90% of the vote making his election this year almost guaranteed. I am a little shocked by that, but I don't think it is unwarranted. Sabathia was a great pitcher for a long time, but this does get back to my frustration about Luis Tiant not getting in, because the numbers are really close between these two. Sabathia has more wins, strikeouts and a Cy Young Award, but most of their other numbers are extremely close.
ICHIRO SUZUKI
TEAMS: Mariners, Yankees, Marlins
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: MVP (2001), Rookie of the Year (2001), 10x All Star, 10x Gold Glove, 3x Silver Slugger, 2x Batting Title
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mariners
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Possibly unanimously
Ichiro is a lock to get in the Hall of Fame. He could be the second player ever to be elected unanimously, especially if voters take into account his numbers in Japan. For his career, he hit .311/.355/.402 and had 3,089 hits. Not bad for someone who started in the Majors at 27. The only real knock against him is that his numbers look a little more ordinary after his first ten seasons in the Majors.
TROY TULOWITZKI
TEAMS: Rockies, Blue Jays, Yankees
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 2x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Rockies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Tulowitzki is another middle infielder who started off very strong and had some amazing seasons before injuries started taking their toll. He had some big power numbers early in his career in Colorado. He finished with a line of .290/.361/.495 with 225 home runs and 780 RBIs. At one point he looked headed for the Hall, but he was finished at 31. He will likely not last past this year on the ballot.
CHASE UTLEY
TEAMS: Phillies, Dodgers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 6x All Star, 4x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Eventually.
Utley had a strong showing in his first year on the ballot last year, but not one that ensures his election is imminent. He received 28.8% of the vote and has picked up quite a few votes, but also lost several. It will be interesting to see what happens with his candidacy over the next several years. I think he will get in, but it may be awhile. He is the lynchpin of the analytics versus traditional stats argument currently on the ballot.
OMAR VIZQUEL
TEAMS: Mariners, Indians, Giants, Rangers, White Sox, Blue Jays
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star, 11x Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Indians
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably not.
Yep, we are still doing this. Vizquel is now in his eighth year on the ballot with one of the weirdest voting history I have ever seen. Last year, he received 17.7%. He topped out at 52.6% in just his third year on the ballot and looked like an easy bet to make it. He has actually gained a few votes this year, but he is still well off the pace to make it in. I could see him get in via an Eras Committee, but I really do not think he deserves to be.
BILLY WAGNER
TEAMS: Astros, Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, Braves
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 7x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Astros
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Most likely this year.
Wagner fell just five votes short last year of election. I was very disappointed. Early returns this year are very promising as he has gained eight votes so far and has appeared on all of the new voters' ballots. That doesn't guarantee his election, but certainly seems to be a strong indicator. Wagner was one of the most dominant closers of all time. I think we will finally see him in this year, but this is his last year on the ballot either way.
DAVID WRIGHT
TEAMS: Mets
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 7x All Star, 2x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mets
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Tough to say.
Wright received enough support in his first year to stay on the ballot, receiving 6.2% of the vote. He has gained a few votes so far this year, so he could be a player that builds support over time and may get in. He has a similar case to Dustin Pedroia in that he was a one-team player who had a very high peak, but a career shortened by injury so the career numbers are not quite there. But Pedroia played a more demanding position, had more hits and won a couple of major awards. So Wright is maybe a little bit of a weaker candidate than Pedroia.
BEN ZOBRIST
TEAMS: Rays, Athletics, Royals, Cubs
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Rays
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Zobrist was a good player and even a great one for a few seasons. He had a terrific 2009 season when he hit .297/.405/.543 with 27 home runs and 91 RBIs and he won the World Series MVP for the Cubs first championship in over 100 years. He was an incredibly versatile player who put in time at every position except catcher. Ultimately though, he hit just .266/.357/.426 with 167 home runs and 768 RBIs. He won't last beyond this ballot cycle.
PREDICTIONS:
1. Ichiro, Sabathia and Wagner are all elected.
2. Beltran and Andruw Jones position themselves for election next year.
3. Dustin Pedroia stays on the ballot.