Hall of Fame Worthy? Pt. 20: Jonathan Papelbon

 

Let's do another one of these, shall we?  Jonathan Papelbon was on the ballot for the BBWAA in 2022 and dropped off after the first ballot.  He is not going to have another shot until he is eligible on the Eras Committee in about ten years or so.  So, this is definitely not a real urgent candidacy.

It is pretty obvious that voters do not really know what to do with relief pitchers.  There are obvious inductees like Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman and Dennis Eckersley, but Lee Smith took until he was first eligible on the Eras Committee to get elected.  Billy Wagner looks like he may get in next year.  Otherwise, the only relievers in the Hall are Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage, Rollie Fingers and Hoyt Wilhelm.  

It is extremely difficult to find a real good metric to compare relief pitchers since the role has changed so much over the years.  Wilhelm, Gossage, Fingers and Sutter all came from an era in which relievers might pitch a couple of innings a game.  Smith came in toward the end of that era.  Eckersley spent half his career as a starter.  So, Papelbon could only adequately be compared to Rivera and Hoffman.  So, let's start there.  I will put Wagner in as well since his induction seems imminent.

RIVERA: 82-60, 2.21 ERA, 652 saves, 1.000 WHIP, 1,173 strikeouts, 56.3 WAR

HOFFMAN: 61-75, 2.87 ERA, 601 saves, 1.058 WHIP, 1,133 strikeouts, 28.0 WAR

WAGNER: 47-40, 2.31 ERA, 422 saves, 0.998 WHIP, 1,196 strikeouts, 27.7 WAR

PAPELBON: 41-36, 2.44 ERA, 368 saves, 1.043 WHIP, 808 strikeouts, 23.3 WAR

Well, in looking at those numbers, it is pretty clear what the Wagner argument is.  Holy smokes, he was dominant.  One of the obvious barriers to Papelbon's induction is the brevity of his career.  He falls far short in the counting stats primarily because he pitched just 12 years and 725.2 innings.  Those numbers are far smaller than any of the other three.  His record, ERA and WHIP are favorable to Hoffman though.  Let's look at some other rate stats:

RIVERA: 8.2 SO9, 4.10 SO/W, 2.76 FIP

HOFFMAN: 9.4 SO9, 3.69 SO/W, 3.08 FIP

WAGNER: 11.9 SO9, 3.99 SO/W, 2.73 FIP

PAPELBON: 10.0 SO9, 4.37 SO/W, 2.81 FIP

That is a little more interesting.  Again, Wagner presents a compelling case based on these stats, but Papelbon has the better strikeouts per nine innings among the rest, and has the best strikeout to walk ratio.  His FIP is better than Wagner's and comparable, but higher than Wagner and Rivera, and better than Hoffman.  This seems to present a better argument for Papelbon.

There is a metric called R-JAWS that specifically rates relievers and this metric rates Papelbon fairly highly.  Papelbon comes in 10th all-time, behind Rivera, Eckersley, Wilhelm, Gossage and Hoffman (and Wagner), but ahead of Smith, Fingers and Sutter.  He also comes in behind Joe Nathan, Firpo Marberry and Tom Gordon.  I do not really see anyone making arguments for Marberry and Gordon, so that is not terribly helpful.

Papelbon finished second in the A.L. Rookie of the Year vote in 2006, and might have won it had he not gone on the disabled list for the last month of the season.  He never received any votes for Cy Young or MVP, but did get named to six All Star teams.  Papelbon never led the league in any major categories, but he was consistently in the top ten in saves and is eleventh all time.  He was also a beast in the postseason, appearing in 18 games, pitching 27 innings with an ERA of 1.00.  He had a record of 2-1, struck out 23 and walked eight, while saving seven games.  

THE VERDICT

Longevity seems to be a big problem for Papelbon.  He was certainly a consistent and dominant relief pitcher.  He just did not pitch long enough and his innings total was significantly less than even Wagner.  Many voters are using Wagner's innings as a reason not to vote for him, so that is not helpful with Papelbon.  I just do not see him getting in.  Papelbon will have to settle for being in the Red Sox Hall of Fame, and he holds the team record for saves (219), so that appears a safe bet.