I am not sure voters really know what to do with starting pitchers these days. Obvious selections like Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux and others made it into without any problems. It is the next tier that is giving voters fits. Curt Schilling was not able to get elected. Andy Pettitte is still out there. Mark Buehrle has struggled to gain any meaningful support. Pitchers like Tim Hudson and Johan Santana have dropped off the ballot. This has not been exclusive to the latest generation. David Cone, Kevin Brown, Bret Saberhagen, Dave Stieb and Luis Tiant all failed to gain election.
So where will Jon Lester fall? Well, first let us look at his case.
Lester pitched 16 seasons in the Major Leagues, primarily with the Red Sox and Cubs, but also with stints with the Athletics, Cardinals and Nationals. He was a second-round pick of the Red Sox. He was an All Star five times and finished in the top five of the Cy Young vote three times, though not winning it. He led the league in wins, winning percentage, shutouts and strikeouts per nine innings once each. He had a career record of 200-117 with a 3.66 ERA (117 ERA+). In 2,740 career innings, he struck out 2,488 batters and walked 892.
He was extremely impressive in the postseason. In 26 games pitched in the postseason, Lester had a 9-7 record, but a 2.51 ERA. He threw 154 innings, striking out 133 and walking 40. He was named the NLCS MVP in 2016 when he had a 1.38 ERA in two games against the Dodgers. He was a part of three World Championship teams.
On top of all of that, there were some truly fascinating events during Lester's career. His career was derailed early on by a cancer diagnosis in his rookie season. He missed most of the 2007 season while undergoing treatment but made it back at the end of the season. He pitched Game 4 of the World Series, the deciding game. He threw a no-hitter the next season. Lester was then a major part of the Cubs winning the World Series for the first time since 1908.
All of those things are in favor, but Lester's career WAR of 43.5 probably does not cut it. The average Hall of Fame starter is at 73, far above Lester's number. According Baseball Reference, Lester is the 152nd best starting pitcher by WAR, which does have him higher than some Hall of Fame starters. Lester is higher than Jack Morris, Jack Chesbro, Lefty Gomez and Catfish Hunter. That is not necessarily helpful as those are generally not highly-regarded choices.
THE VERDICT:
From a pure statistics standpoint, I do not think Lester's case is strong enough. Where he is helped out is his postseason success and the intriguing storylines. His chances depend on how much weight those are given by voters. Honestly, I would be pretty shocked if he was able to do more than stick around on the ballot.
It seems like lately with starting pitchers, you have to clear the bar by a wide margin to get in. The guys who don't win 3+ Cy Young Awards or strike out 3000 batters seem to not get much consideration.
ReplyDeleteI definitely agree with that. Mike Mussina is the outlier. I was pretty surprised when he got in so easily while so many others have been left on the outside.
ReplyDeleteAgreed. He wont get in. Pick a guy off already.
ReplyDeleteI kind of wonder if he's someone who'll have a shot in the future because at a certain point voters will come to have to terms with the fact that starting pitching became a much more different role roughly around the time Lester retired compared to when he first entered the league, and by extension the thresholds and obvious signs that one could point to for a shoe-in HoFer SP might shift enough for Lester to have a more compelling case than he does now. I don't know if he or any of us will be alive by then but as pitching evolves and the question inevitably for how to judge that evolution has to be addressed I think it could make for an interesting case.
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