I Have a Lot of Thoughts

Buckle up, this is going to be a long post.

I know I have not posted in a long time.  A lot of that is due to the fact that I still do not have a laptop at home after mine broke, there have been a lot of other things I have had to spend my money on lately.  Part of that is being so far behind in my card posts that it feels overwhelming.  I also have not been collecting much this year due to a variety of factors, chief among them is the fact that I can't seem to find any cards in stores.  And part of that has been frustration with the team (though admittedly they are playing much better lately and I have been coming around again).  I never stop following them, but sometimes I just get mad about it.  Such as the Devers trade.  That is going to be a big discussion in this post.  I want to organize my thoughts into three topics: (1) the Devers trade, (2) the status of the team going forward, and (3) who is now my favorite player.

THE DEVERS TRADE

A long time ago, I made a post about moves the team has made that I did not like.  This trade though is probably the move I have absolutely hated the most when it happened.  I disliked the Mookie Betts and Nomar Garciaparra trades, but I understood them.  I hated losing Mo Vaughn and Roger Clemens, but those felt inevitable.  This was just a slap in the face.  The timing was terrible, the Red Sox had just finished off a sweep of the Yankees and seemed headed in a positive direction, and Devers homered in his last at-bat.  And it just felt like something that was entirely avoidable.  And with the trade happening in June, most teams were not moving players yet, so there was no one the team could acquire to help make up for the sudden loss of his bat.  And the trade certainly did not help with that.

This team has had a history of not being able to hold onto its star players, with very few exceptions (Ted Williams, Carl Yastrzemski, Jim Rice, Jason Varitek, David Ortiz).  Rafael Devers was supposed to spend his entire career in Boston.  He signed the big contract extension just a couple years ago.  He was anointed the Face of the Franchise.  He was a certified Yankee killer (and Gerrit Cole in particular).  He had been an All Star three times and a Silver Slugger twice, and looked likely to do both again in 2025.  He had just moved into the top ten franchise list for most home runs.  He looked like a potential Hall of Famer.

So, what happened?

I think both sides are to blame, but I think the primary problem was with the organization itself.  There were expectations that the organization had of Devers after making him the Face of the Franchise.  And they were probably somewhat unrealistic.  First off, they wanted him to take on a leadership role, something Devers has generally been reluctant to do.  He always deferred to players like Xander Bogaerts to be more outspoken.  He has always just wanted to play.  He was not a guy to go into the clubhouse and try to get the team fired up, he was aloof and kind of goofy, more of a big kid.  

But the organization failed Devers too.  If a team wants a player to be the Face of the Franchise, there needs to be much more communication.  It is apparent the team did not communicate with Devers about wanting him to move off of third.  Moving him from third base was probably the right move, Devers has not been a terribly good defensive player during his career, but talk to him about it.  Don't just assume he will be okay with it and bring in a player that makes his move necessary.  Signing Alex Bregman was a good move, he is an elite glove at third with a big, right-handed bat, something the team needed.  But they kept saying in the press Devers would be the third-baseman and Bregman would play first or second.  Until Spring Training when suddenly the team announced Devers would be the DH.  Alex Cora, as the manager, should have taken Devers aside and talked to him about it.  Devers has a lot of pride in his ability and he has played third his entire career.  It would have been odd if he wasn't insulted that he was losing his job.  Then he was told not to worry about playing the field at all, he would stay at DH.

The season started extremely rough.  Devers didn't play much in Spring Training and looked really rusty coming out of the gate.  The strikeouts piled up at a historic pace early on.  And then suddenly, a switch was flipped and he started crushing the ball.  He looked like the old Devers.  Even better, he looked like he was having the best season of his career.  At times, he was leading the league in RBIs and walks (which was always part of his game that needed some improvement).

Things went bad again when Triston Casas (who cannot seem to stay healthy) suffered a season-ending knee injury.  Boston needed a first-baseman and speculation turned to Devers, who bristled at the suggestion.  He made comments in the press about not wanting to move positions just because the organization did not adequately plan ahead.  He was sort of right about that, first base was a position Boston needed depth at over the offseason and did not do much to address.  But when a player is making as much money as Devers is, sometimes you do need to step up.  He moved to DH fine and started to excel, but the team was in dire straits at the position.  I could see him needing to put in some work before appearing at the position, but at least don't dismiss it out of hand.  

And this is where the team reached the point of no return with Devers, viewing him suddenly as unworthy of his anointed mantle.  And then they traded him, without much in the way of shopping him around to get the best deal.  The Giants, who have been lacking a superstar hitter for years and tried valiantly to sign Aaron Judge, came calling and offered to take on Devers's entire contract and a deal was struck.  The problem for Boston is that the haul was even more underwhelming than what they received for Mookie Betts.  With the Betts trade, they at least brought in a player who could move into his spot and provide production (Alex Verdugo), a top prospect (Jeter Downs) and an intriguing future prospect (Connor Wong).  It just did not work out as Verdugo seemed unable to take the next step and Downs's development was stunted during the COVID season.  Only Wong proved to be better than expected.  The Devers trade looks less impressive and looks like the primary reason to unload him was to get his contract off the books.

Boston received four players (in order of most likely impact): Kyle Harrison, Jordan Hicks, James Tibbs and Jose Bello.  The only position player of the group is Tibbs, and he was just drafted last year, so he is at least two years away from the Majors.  And this goes to my biggest problem with the trade.  Boston's offense this year was maddeningly inconsistent and Devers was the most productive hitter by far.  The team clearly wanted to contend going into the season after acquiring Garret Crochet, Bregman, Walker Buehler and Aroldis Chapman.  You can't continue to contend if you move your best hitter and don't bring in anyone to replace him.  They did not get a single hitter in this trade that helps the team this year.  In fact, I would argue they really didn't get a single player period that truly helps the team this year.  

Jordan Hicks was once a terrific reliever with the Cardinals.  Not quite a closer, he had a great fastball and put up solid numbers for several years before being traded to Toronto.  He was a free agent after the season in 2023 and Boston made an attempt to sign him, but he went to the Giants who tried to turn him into a starter.  He did not pitch well as a starter in 2024 and was having a terrible season in 2025 when he was traded.  And he was hurt.  Hicks has appeared in four games with Boston to date, with some success.  But he needs to get back into the swing of being a reliever again before he can really be a key piece of the puzzle.  More than anything, Hicks was part of this deal to offset the contract the Giants were taking on with Devers as he is making approximately $11M a year through 2027.  He could be a closer option if the team moves on from Aroldis Chapman, but is not ready for that yet.

Kyle Harrison was a third round pick in 2020 and was once a Top 100 prospect.  He has pitched in parts of three seasons with the Giants, but with middling success.  He is 9-9 with a 4.48 career ERA in 39 games.  He is the most likely player to make a big impact, but his repertoire is going to have to be rebuilt.  If the Red Sox pitching lab can make something of him, he could yet become a star as he is only 23, but there is considerable work to be done.

James Tibbs was a first-round pick last year, picked one pick after Boston selected Braden Montgomery (who was shipped off in the Crochet deal).  Boston was said to have interest in Tibbs, but did not select him because Montgomery fell into their laps.  He has some power, but has not really shown it much in the minors so far.  He could become a 20-homer hitter at a corner spot, but he has some work to do to get there and he is already 22.  Jose Bello is a lottery ticket, a livewire arm at just 20 years old, but is still in the Florida Coast League.  He has a long way to go.

None of the four players is an obvious candidate to make a big impact, they all have their flaws.  Boston should have held out for Bryce Eldridge, even if they had to eat some of the Devers contract.  But, that is the biggest problem I have with this deal.  It was clearly a salary dump to rid the team of a player they tired of and not a true attempt to improve the team.  The real test will be what the team does with the money they save in the offseason.  

STATUS OF THE TEAM

So, where do the Boston Red Sox go from here?  

Unsurprisingly, the team started to struggle without Devers's bat in the lineup.  But then, a funny thing happened.  They actually started to play better.  Time will tell if they continue to play well.  They are in a similar position to where they were last year when they had a lot of momentum going into the All Star Break, but fell flat on their faces when the second half started.  As of today, they have won eight games in a row, with two more games before the break.  They will play some good teams coming out of the break, so it will be interesting to see how they do.

The problem with this team is there are a couple of position issues that absolutely need to be addressed going forward.  In general, the team is far too left-handed-heavy.  The only regular right-handed bats in the lineup are Trevor Story, Alex Bregman, Ceddanne Rafaela and Carlos Narvaez.  Specifically, the outfield is a big concern.  There is a logjam in the outfield with Wilyer Abreu, Roman Anthony, Jarren Duran, Rafaela and Masataka Yoshida, with no easy answers as to how to work it out.  That's an even bigger problem since four out of the five are lefty hitters.  The team could hold onto all of them as depth for the season, but it will mean that someone will be left out of the lineup each night.  A trade is the most likely way out of the logjam, but who gets moved?  In order of least likely to most likely to be traded:

1.  Roman Anthony was the team's top prospect, and in some places, the top prospect in the game, coming into the season.  He started slow in the Majors after getting called up just after Devers was traded, but has really started to turn things on.  He isn't great defensively, but he's not bad either.  He could easily be the team's next big superstar and he should absolutely be playing every day.  They would be really dumb to trade him.

2.  Ceddanne Rafaela is signed to a team-friendly extension, is the only right-handed hitter out of the group, plays stellar defense and can even play in the infield (he played a lot of shortstop last season).  He has also been one of the team's best hitters over the last few weeks.  I do not think there is any way the team can possibly move him, but it was not long ago that he looked lost at the plate.  He has not had good plate discipline for much of his career, but he may have turned the corner.  Time will tell.  If he has, he is an All Star-caliber player.  

3.  Masataka Yoshida is ranked here, not because he's irreplaceable, but because he's basically immovable.  He is signed through 2027 for a hefty contract and he has not hit well enough to have much value in a trade.  I really like Yoshida, but injuries have been a problem, he is not good defensively, and his bat isn't good enough to make up for his deficiencies.  The only way he leaves Boston is if he gets released outright, and that's not really a good move either.  So, more or less, Yoshida is stuck here.

4.  Wilyer Abreu was acquired in the Christian Vazquez deal a few years back.  All he did in his rookie season last year was finish fourth in the Rookie of the Year race (though he should have finished higher, don't get me started) and win a Gold Glove.  He started this season on a tear, but then faded and got hurt.  He has been back to hitting well again recently though and leads the team with 18 home runs.  There are times he looks like a budding superstar, but he has often been platooned (this is due mostly to Cora's unwillingness to play him against lefties, not because he's particularly bad) and he can be very streaky.  He could fetch a significant return if he gets traded and is one of the more likely possibilities.  

5.  Jarren Duran is the most likely to be traded in my eyes.  Duran has game-changing speed and there is no denying how amazing his 2024 season was in which he turned in an MVP-caliber year.  But that season looks more like an outlier than a real indication of what he is as a player.  Sometimes a player will just play out of their mind for a year.  We saw it with Jacoby Ellsbury's 2011 season.  He has had a rougher year this year, particularly in the field, but has turned it on again lately.  The other issue with trading Duran is that he is a more vocal leader in the clubhouse.  A trade would really hurt the team, but it might be necessary to get more playing time for the other players and he could also bring in a big return. 

The infield is not actually in much better shape.  There are too many players there as well.

First base seems like the most likely position to upgrade.  Triston Casas was the first-baseman entering the season, but he struggled offensively and then got hurt, which then ended his year before he got going.  The team may look to move on from him after they shopped him last season.  It doesn't help that he is yet another left-handed hitter.  I like Casas, but I do not get the impression he is as beloved by the organization.  Right now, the team is employing a platoon of Abraham Toro and Romy Gonzalez, but neither player is really a long-term solution.  They both have solid numbers, but that is more due to using them in the right way (much like they do with Rob Refsnyder), if either were to become a true starter, they would likely be exposed.  This is the most likely position for Kristian Campbell to settle into long-term as he has struggled defensively elsewhere.

Second base is also mostly open.  Last year's primary second-baseman was David Hamilton, who was one of my favorite players last year due to his great speed.  He also hit well enough to not be a problem and was solid defensively at the position.  But he has regressed badly this season and just got sent down to the minors.  Kristian Campbell started this season at second base and started off hot.  He was the team's second or third best prospect coming into the year, but he cooled significantly and was sent back to the minors as well.  There is also Vaughn Grissom, who was acquired in the Chris Sale deal, but has never really settled in Boston and has yet to play in the Majors this season.  This is the most likely spot for top prospect Marcelo Mayer going forward if they do not move Trevor Story.

Which leads me to shortstop.  Trevor Story is the incumbent, but I get the feeling the Red Sox would prefer to move on from him as he has struggled to stay on the field and often looks lost at the plate.  He certainly seems headed to being a bust, but has been hitting well the last few weeks.  Again, Marcelo Mayer seemed liked the shortstop of the future and could certainly move here.  Ceddanne Rafaela also played shortstop last season, but he seems locked in at center field.

A lot of what happens at third base will depend on Alex Bregman.  He has an opt-out after this season.  There seems like mutual interest in signing him to an extension.  If that happens, he is the third-baseman.  If not, then this position is also open and could see Mayer move here.

Things are just really messy right now and it is not clear what the plan was in getting some of these players.  To me, the best bet would be to trade Duran, play an outfield of Abreu, Rafaela and Anthony, move Yoshida to DH full time, put Campbell at first, Mayer at second, and leave Story and Bregman at shortstop and third base.

The pitching will also need to be sorted out at some point, but due to injuries and ineffectiveness, this is less of a concern.

MY FAVORITE PLAYER

The Devers trade was devastating to me.  I was in complete shock.  Part of that is that he was my favorite player.  Sure, Connor Wong is the player I was collecting the most, but Devers was my favorite.  I have seen a lot of my favorite players leave before.  But there was always someone there to take their place.  I will show this:

1992:  Wade Boggs signed with the Yankees, but Roger Clemens was still there.

1996:  Roger Clemens signed with the Blue Jays, but Mo Vaughn was still there.

1998:  Mo Vaughn signed with the Angels, but Nomar Garciaparra was still there.

2004:  Nomar Garciaparra was traded to the Cubs, but Jason Varitek was still there.

2011:  Jason Varitek retired, but Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz were still there.

2016-2017:  David Ortiz retired and Dustin Pedroia suffered a career-ending injury, but Mookie Betts was still there.

2020:  Mookie Betts was traded, but Xander Bogaerts was still there.

2022:  Xander Bogaerts signed with the Padres, but Rafael Devers was still there.

2025:  Rafael Devers was traded to the Giants, but....?

And that's where we are.  I have been kind of reeling for weeks trying to figure out who I truly think is my favorite player.  I really have no idea.    The obvious culprit would be Connor Wong.  I have been focused on collecting him for a couple years now, but he is having such a bad season this year, I can't help but think his time in Boston may be coming to an end.  He had a good year at the plate last year, but metrics show that was mostly based on luck and he was bad behind the plate.  This year, he has improved defensively, but his bat has been so anemic that he has lost his starting job.  Part of that is due to dislocating his finger earlier on, but he has played in 33 games now and only has one RBI (a sac fly) and not a single extra base hit.  Simply put, that is not acceptable production, even for a backup catcher.  

So who's left?  The team's All Stars this year are Garrett Crochet, Alex Bregman and Aroldis Chapman, none of whom were on the team last year.  Chapman is just a short-term mercenary and the less said about his off-the-field past, the better.  I was not a big Bregman fan coming into the year, but he has won me over.  I am still not ready to anoint him a favorite.  I really like Crochet, but he does not have a sustained record of success over his career.  

The longest-tenured player is currently Tanner Houck, who made his debut late in 2020.  That's crazy.  Houck was an All Star last year, but is so inconsistent, that it is hard to truly get too worked up about him.  He had a terrible start to the year and is currently rehabbing.  I said some time ago I could see him become a closer and I still feel that may be his best role moving forward.  The next longest-tenured players, who debuted in 2021, are Connor Wong, Jarren Duran and Garrett Whitlock.  I discussed Wong and Duran above, I think Duran is a very good bet to be traded, so I don't want to get too attached.  Whitlock has the same issues as Houck, though he seems more settled into a bullpen role now.  2022 saw the debut of Brayan Bello, and I am a big fan of Bello.  Unfortunately, he is also too inconsistent to really be a favorite, but if he continues pitching like he has been lately, it's possible.

It is probably too early to pick Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer or Kristian Campbell, though any of them could push through in the next year or so, particularly Anthony.  Carlos Narvaez deserves mention as the current starting catcher, but he really came out of nowhere this season and I am always skeptical of players like that.  He is another great trade Boston made with the Yankees, so he gets special mention due to that (getting Richard Fitts and Greg Weissert for Alex Verdugo was another good one).  

So, it likely comes down to Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu.  Abreu is the better hitter, but Rafaela is better defensively (which is weird to say since Abreu has a Gold Glove and Rafaela doesn't), more versatile and has more speed.  Rafaela lately is not far off from Abreu at the plate either.  Then there is the fact that I believe there is a reasonable chance Abreu could be traded but Rafaela seems like he is settling in.  I think ultimately, that is the deciding factor, so I am ready to name Ceddanne Rafaela as my favorite player, but that this could change pretty easily over the next year depending on how he finishes the season, other team moves and the development of the three prospects.  

I'm going to need to get some more cards.