It's Hall of Fame ballot season! I make stupid predictions every year. Sometimes I am even right. A lot of these players have been discussed for several years. So as not to give conflicting predictions in most cases, I am probably going to just cut and paste and make some obvious voting updates from last year's post.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 2x All Star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee?
Abreu continues to surprise me with his support. I am not necessarily opposed to his election, but he is a player that I definitely never considered a Hall of Famer when he was playing. But, it is not as if his election is imminent. He is now in his seventh year on the ballot and received just 19.5% of the vote last year. He has a long way to go if he is to ever get in.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Rookie of the Year (1999), 9x All Star, 3x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mets
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Yes, this year.
Beltran is the litmus test for how the Astros players of 2017 will be treated. He is now in his fourth year on the ballot and, after receiving 70.3% last year, I think his election is imminent this time around.
TEAMS: Brewers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Rookie of the Year (2007), MVP (2011), 6x All Star, 5x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Brewers
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Most likely not.
Boy, those accomplishments look pretty good. And, he hit .296/.358/.532 with 352 career home runs and 1,154 career RBIs. Unfortunately, there's that other thing. Braun was suspended for the majority of the 2013 season for testing positive for PEDs. He was not all that forthcoming about it either. The voters have generally taken a very hard-line stance against players who get suspended for PEDs, not electing Rafael Palmeiro, Manny Ramirez or Alex Rodriguez, all players who have even more favorable career numbers to Braun. I do not expect any different outcome here. He will be lucky to stay on the ballot.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 4x Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: White Sox
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Unlikely
Buerhle is now in his sixth year on the ballot and seems to be gaining a few votes, but he only received 11.4% last year. He was a very good, steady pitcher for a long time, but that does not really scream Hall of Fame to me, and voters mostly seem to see it the same way. I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility for him to get in, but it seems unlikely.
TEAMS: Mariners, Indians, Reds, Rangers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Indians
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Choo was better than I remembered. For his career he hit .275/.377/.447 with 218 home runs, 1,671 hits, 782 RBIs and 157 stolen bases. He hit over .300 three times and over 20 home runs seven times. He received MVP consideration twice. But, that is just not going to get it done. Hall of Pretty Good, sure. Hall of Fame, no.
TEAMS: Reds, Blue Jays, Indians, Mariners, Yankees, White Sox
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Blue Jays
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Somehow, Encarnacion hit 424 career home runs. That seems really crazy. I get that he had some huge seasons in Toronto in particular. He hit more than 40 home runs twice and drove in more than 100 runs six times. He had a career slash line of .260/.350/.496 and drove in 1,261 runs. But for a player whose best position was designated hitter, he needed more than 424 career home runs and a much better slash line. His numbers do not come close to players like Edgar Martinez or David Ortiz, and there is not much of a lower line for a player who was primarily a DH.
TEAMS: Athletics, Nationals, Brewers, White Sox
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 2x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Nationals
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: He is the most likely to not receive a vote.
I have not gotten all the way through this but I am guessing that Gonzalez is probably the least-qualified player on this ballot. The "it's an honor to be nominated" candidate. That is not to suggest that Gonzalez was a bad player, far from it. But his 131-101 record and 3.70 career ERA are not exactly eye-popping. He had some good years and in 2012 he was third in the Cy Young vote after going 21-8 with a 2.89 ERA and 207 strikeouts. He just was not good enough for anywhere near long enough to make a serious run at the Hall of Fame.
TEAMS: Royals
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star, 8x Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Royals
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Interesting side note: Alex Gordon went to my high school. And my college. He is from my hometown of Lincoln, Nebraska. He is three years younger than I am and was a freshman when I was a senior. I dated a girl two years younger than me and she knew him from a few of her classes growing up. But enough of all of that, is Alex Gordon going to get into the Hall of Fame? Sadly, no. He was a great defensive player, but his bat did not live up to the lofty expectations of being a second overall pick in the draft. His slash line was .257/.338/.410, an OPS+ of 102, which means he was just two percent better than the average player. He had a few very good seasons, but 190 career home runs, 1,643 hits and 749 RBIs are not Hall of Fame numbers.
TEAMS: Phillies, Rangers, Cubs, Braves
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 4x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably has the best chance of any of the first-year players on the ballot.
Hamels has the best chance of election of any of the first-year players on this ballot. We are at a point where the standards for starting pitchers to make the Hall of Fame are going to be lessening. Hamels had a record of 163-122 with a career ERA of 3.43 and 2,560 strikeouts in 2,698 innings. The strikeout and ERA numbers are certainly impressive, but the record would not have gotten him a second look 10-15 years ago. I do not think he is going to get in this year, but I think Hamels will build a case over time. His World Series MVP from 2008 certainly helps.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Cy Young (2010), 6x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mariners
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Eventually maybe.
King Felix did not have a long career, but he was absolutely dominant for about a seven-year period. In this day and age, that might be enough for a starting pitcher to get in. He won't get in this year, but he could easily build up support over the next several years. This is his second year on the ballot and he finished with 20.6% of the vote, so he has been doing better than a lot of the pitchers currently on the ballot. Hernandez only won 169 games in his career, but he mostly pitched for bad Mariners teams and he struck out 2,524 career batters, an average of over 200 per season during his 15-year career. Unfortunately, he flamed out early and was done by the age of 33, but he was a great pitcher when he was healthy.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 9x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Twins
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Hunter barely stayed on the ballot last year, receiving 5.1% of the vote. It takes 5% to stay on the ballot, meaning if he loses just a few votes this year, he will drop off the ballot. I am not sure of the reason behind the drop in support, but it does appear to be a reality. He was not a real strong candidate to begin with, with a lot of other center fielders needing election before a good case can be made for him.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 5x All Star, 10x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Braves
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Reasonable chance at election this year.
Time is running out for Jones. He is in his ninth year on the ballot, but he did receive 66.2% of the vote last year. With a very weak class this year, he has a very good shot at election. If not, he will have one more chance. He is regarded as one of the greatest defensive center fielders of all time and also has 434 career homers. Unfortunately, he was basically done as a good player at the age of 30 and just sort of hung around after that.
TEAMS: Dodgers, Padres, Braves, Reds, Rockies
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star, 2x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Dodgers
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
There are a lot of guys on this ballot that were superstars for a few years and then just sort of faded away. Kemp was one of the best players in the National League for a few years and probably should have won the MVP in 2011 when he hit .324/.399/.586 with 39 home runs, 126 RBIs, 115 runs scored and 40 stolen bases. He led the league in homers, RBIs and runs. But he was a good, but not great player, for much of the rest of his career and his career numbers were a line of .284/.337/.484 with 287 homers, 1,031 RBIs and 184 stolen bases. Solid numbers, but not superstar numbers.
TEAMS: Angels, Dodgers, Phillies, Nationals
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Angels
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Kendrick's biggest claim to fame is going off in the 2019 postseason to the point that he was the NLCS MVP. Before that, he was a solid, if unspectacular second-baseman. He was certainly a good hitter, as his .294/.337/.430 career slash line will attest, but he did not walk much and had very little power (only four years with ten or more homers and a career high of 18). He did not have a ton of speed either, meaning his only real tool was the ability to hit for contact. Nice player, not a Hall of Famer.
TEAMS: Orioles, Braves
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: All Star, 3x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Orioles
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
For a few years there was some talk about the possibility of Markakis sneaking his way to 3,000 hits and forcing the door to the Hall of Fame open for him. He was named an All Star for the first time in 2018 at the age of 34 and had 185 hits that season, putting him at 2,237 for his career. Certainly at the time it looked like he could stick around for another four seasons and make it to 3,000, but his decline happened fast and he was out of baseball after the 2020 season with just 2,388 hits. Without making the magic number, he just is not getting in.
TEAMS: Mets, Nationals, Cubs, Rockies
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Maybe Nationals?
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Yet another player on the ballot with some big years, but not nearly enough of them to build a Hall of Fame case. Murphy was the runner-up in the MVP race in 2016 when he hit .347/.390/.595 with a league-leading 47 doubles, 25 home runs and 104 RBIs, as a second-baseman. He had more time with the Mets, but his best seasons were in Washington. His line of .296/.341/.455 is impressive, but his hit total of 1,572 and 138 home runs does not get him there. Definitely some great years though.
TEAMS: Red Sox
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Rookie of the Year (2007), MVP (2008), 4x All Star, 4x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Red Sox
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Possibly
Pedroia had a better showing than I was expecting last year. In his first year on the ballot, he was named on 11.9% of the ballots. That's better than some players who were eventually elected. There is a trend in the Eras Committees for high peak players to get in, and Pedroia would qualify. It's hard to ignore a player who won both the MVP and Rookie of the Year. Pedroia's numbers are hurt by his injuries in the last few years of his career, but still eclipse Kendrick and Murphy, who both debut this year. He could be a player who builds a case over time. I think a decent-sized jump this year with a weak class could propel him.
TEAMS: Astros, Phillies, Giants, Rangers
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 4x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Giants slightly over Astros
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
Pence is yet another solid, occasionally great player on this ballot. But, he never led the league in any significant offensive category, was only an All Star four times and never won any other awards. His slash line was a good-not-great .279/.334/.461 with 244 career home runs and 942 career RBIs. He had 1,791 hits in his career. So, once again, very good player, but not a Hall of Famer.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Yankees
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee
Pettitte is now in his eighth year on the ballot and received 27.9% of the vote last year. He more than doubled in percentage of votes but he still has a long way to go and a very short time to make it up. It is certainly possible that the election of CC Sabathia could help boost Pettitte's chances in the near future, but he has a lot of ground to make up. I think his best chance would be to build up his vote total and get in on an Eras Committee ballot.
TEAMS: Tigers, Red Sox, Mets
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: Cy Young (2016)
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Red Sox
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: No.
I take back what I said about Gio Gonzalez being the least-qualified player on the ballot. Even though Porcello won the Cy Young Award in 2016, he has the lowest bWAR (18.8) by a decent margin and was never an All Star. Other than his Cy Young season, he never had another year where he was in the running and he was mostly an average pitcher every other year. His career stats include a record of 150-125 with an ERA of 4.40 (ERA+ 99) and he had 1,561 strikeouts. I really liked Porcello during his time in Boston, but had he not won the Cy Young Award, I don't even think he would be on this ballot.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 12x All Star, 9x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Red Sox
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe by an Eras Committee
Ramirez is in his final year on the ballot. He received 34.3% of the vote last year, which represented the highest he has received. That is nowhere near enough to get him into the Hall of Fame though. It will be interesting to see in a couple of weeks when the Eras Committee makes their decision to see what they do with Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. That will give a better idea of his chances there, though he sticks out because he was suspended for PEDs twice. Ramirez is one of the best hitters in history, but those suspensions loom large.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x MVP (2003, 2005, 2007), 14x All Star, 2x Gold Glove, 10x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Yankees
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Not soon.
Rodriguez seems to be doing better generally than Manny Ramirez on the balloting, it certainly helps that he has a bit more hardware and played a more demanding position, but those PED allegations have kept him out. That being said, Rodriguez has more time. He is on the ballot for fifth time this year and received 37.1% of the vote last year. He will likely stagnate just like Ramirez.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 4x All Star
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Angels
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Maybe?
Now that Billy Wagner has been elected, I could see a case building for Rodriguez over the next few years. He has a long way to go as he was at just 10.2% of the vote last year, but he is only in his fourth year this year. Rodriguez has more career saves and more innings pitched than Wagner, and also has the all-time single season saves record. But he was not as dominant as Wagner.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: MVP (2007), 3x All Star, 4x Gold Glove, Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably not.
Rollins is on his fifth year on the ballot and received 18% of the vote last year. He increased quite a bit last year and could start to build a better case, but it is not looking terribly likely. The real test will be this year when there is a fairly weak first-year class, led by his 2008 Phillies teammate Cole Hamels.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 6x All Star, 4x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Phillies
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Eventually.
Utley made a big gain in his second year on the ballot, jumping up to 39.8% of the vote. It will be interesting to see what happens with his candidacy over the next several years. I think he will get in, but it may be awhile. He is the lynchpin of the analytics versus traditional stats argument currently on the ballot.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 3x All Star, 11x Gold Glove
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Indians
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Probably not.
Yep, we are still doing this. Vizquel is now in his ninth year on the ballot with one of the weirdest voting history I have ever seen. Last year, he received 17.9%, up slightly from the 17.7% that he bottomed out at the year before. He topped out at 52.6% in just his third year on the ballot and looked like an easy bet to make it. I could see him get in via an Eras Committee, but I really do not think he deserves to be.
ACCOMPLISHMENTS: 7x All Star, 2x Gold Glove, 2x Silver Slugger
IF ELECTED, CAP WOULD BE: Mets
WILL HE BE ELECTED?: Tough to say.
Wright gained a little support in his second year, making it to 8.1% of the vote. He could be a player that builds support over time and may get in. He has a similar case to Dustin Pedroia in that he was a one-team player who had a very high peak, but a career shortened by injury so the career numbers are not quite there. But Pedroia played a more demanding position, had more hits and won a couple of major awards. So Wright is maybe a little bit of a weaker candidate than Pedroia.
PREDICTIONS:
Let's see, what do I think is going to happen here?
1. Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones finally get elected.
2. Dustin Pedroia, Chase Utley, Andy Pettitte and Felix Hernandez all get large gains as a result of being stronger cases on a very weak ballot.
3. Of the first-timers, only Cole Hamels makes it to a second year on the ballot.
4. Manny Ramirez makes a modest gain, but drops off the ballot due to being on for ten years.
5. Alex Rodriguez makes a modest gain.
6. Torii Hunter and Omar Vizquel both manage to get headed in a positive direction.
This is the most "well Harold Baines is in so who really knows or cares" ballot ever to me. Kudos on making a serious effort to break down their chances.
ReplyDeleteVisquel had an off field issue in 2021 that is why his voting dropped so much..
ReplyDeleteI'm aware of that. It is probably mentioned in an earlier post. I also think he is incredibly overrated and is not really that good of a candidate in the first place.
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